The Arkansas Project

Maybe We Should Start Doing This Again

By David Kinkade - February 22, 2010 10:25 am

Well look who's back. (Photo credit CBS)

Believe me, team, should you ever dare to start up a blog and then take some time away from it, boy howdy, will you ever hear about it.

As a result of my hiatus these last couple of weeks, I’ve received a steady stream of reader e-mails, telephone calls and personal confrontations filled with complaints, insults, nagging and threats. But enough about Arkansas Project Girlfriend….

So maybe we’ll start ramping up again this week, ever so slowly, so as not to hurt ourselves. Let’s start with a) a new photo of that Arkansas chick who won CBS’ “Survivor” a few weeks ago (the “TV Guide” page where I found that photo says it’s her, but if so she looks really different from the earlier shots) and b) some long-delayed updates to our candidate lists. Quite a few changes to the First, Second and Third District congressional races, among others. (Let me know what updates we’re missing on the state legislative races front.)

The good news is that over the next couple of weeks we’ll start to get a much firmer sense of what all of these primary races will look like, since candidate filing starts March 1 and wraps up March 8. Which Senate candidates will wake up and face reality, once they’re faced with actually having to write a check for $12,500? (*cough*Curtis Coleman!*cough*Conrad Reynolds!*ahem*). I can’t wait to find out!

And among the things I missed last week…seriously, a “TWITTERVIEW” with Sen. Blanche Lincoln? My friends, we have now arrived at the absolutely stupidest possible confluence between the worlds of social media and politics. Alas.

Oh, Yeah, John Boozman’s Getting In, Too (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - January 29, 2010 7:05 am

Photo courtesy of Arkansas Project reader Mike, who has a thing for both Boozman and impossibly leggy chicks posing in uncomfortable stances.

After a week-long tease that he was considering getting into the Arkansas GOP Senate primary for a chance to challenge embattled U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Rep. John Boozman’s getting in, someone who would probably know tells me.

Of course, they’re telling everyone they can find, so it’s hardly exclusive. You might think they’d just issue a press release instead of offering a steady stream of breathless “sources say/you didn’t hear this from me” messages to everyone in the world, one by one, which appears to be the strategy.

As the lone Republican in the state’s Congressional delegation, Boozman will emerge as a strong candidate given his regional strength in Northwest Arkansas, proven fundraising ability, and dear God does anyone even bother reading these pat “impact” analyses at this point when the impacts are mostly obvious—I mean, you’re probably not even reading this sentence anymore, and if you are the question is, why, because it’s not like there’s going to be anything in this graf that you haven’t read before or even thought up yourself, right?

Boozman’s always struck me as a nice fellow but he has the charisma of an elbow. The End.

Oh, no, wait, one more thing: Jim Lindsey! Might run! OK, now really The End.

UPDATE: In a news release issued today, Boozman says to stay tuned till February 6, when he’ll have an “important announcement” about his political future. Golly, I wonder what it could be?

Robbie Wills Would Like to Be Your Congressperson Now

By David Kinkade - January 27, 2010 2:45 pm

Arkansas Rep. Robbie “Robert” Wills, the supreme leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives, announced today that he’s jumping in to the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder in Congress.

Wills is the second Democrat to announce for the seat—state Sen. Joyce Elliott said last week that she’s running for the Second District seat as well. Three Republicans — Tim Griffin, David Meeks and Scott Wallace — are slugging it out in a primary on the GOP side, and by all accounts the Democratic field is only expected to grow.

Word on the street is that Wills is looking at recent successful campaigns for ways to distinguish himself as the front runner. In fact, he’s been closely studying the Massachussetts Senate race last week for tips on how Republican Scott Brown pulled a shocker upset over Democrat Martha Coakley, and doing everything he can to replicate the Brown playbook:

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Blanche Lincoln Is Just A Damn Money Machine

By David Kinkade - January 26, 2010 11:57 am

Finally, something to smile about.

Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln can’t seem to get much right these days based on her poll numbers, but her fundraising prowess tells another story.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, Lincoln raised $1.3 million, leaving her with $5 million cash on hand, her campaign announced this morning. In a related story, the various candidates in the GOP primary to challenge Lincoln discovered that they could save a bundle by carpooling to events.

Back in July of last year, I noted that, if Lincoln were to continue raising funds at the rate of roughly $500,000 per month, she could conceivably raise $11 million for the race. For this election cycle in total, she’s now raised more than $7 million, which I believe is already an all-time record for an Arkansas candidate.

Republican candidates who think that Lincoln is finished just because she’s polling below 50 percent (way below) right now truly underestimate how hard Democrats will fight to hold this seat. Political machines don’t just roll over and die because they get discouraged.

And yes, we’ve all heard the rumors and speculation floating around that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wants Lincoln to step aside for a stronger candidate. I’ll believe it when I see it. Till we hear her say she’s out, she’s in.

By the way, I’ll be on KARN at 5 p.m. this afternoon with local radio legend Dave Elswick to talk state politics, and I’ll bet we discuss some of these numbers. Also on the agenda: I’ll show you how to make a simple bird feeder with just a pine cone and a couple tablespoons of peanut butter! Tune in at 5 to learn how!

David Sanders Wants Your Money

By David Kinkade - January 26, 2010 11:43 am

The David Sanders for House District 31 campaign drops a note that Sanders is hosting a fundraiser this evening at Little Rock’s Pipe and Tobacco Shop on University Avenue, across the street from the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. It’s at 6 p.m., so make your way over there if you want to support Sanders’ campaign, or if you just want to reek of cigar smoke for the next 72 hours.

Shocker: Rep. Marion Berry Bows Out! (Updated)

By David Kinkade - January 24, 2010 5:22 pm

Berry: Gotta go

Rumors of Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry’s possible retirement from his First District Congressional seat — fueled by a radio interview with KUAR’s Ron Breeding last week in which Berry hedged on the question of whether he was running again — are proving to have been on the mark. Berry’s retirement announcement is pending, and may come as early as Sunday evening.

(UPDATE: Looks like I was a little behind the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who says the Berry announcement will come tomorrow. Roby Brock at Talk Business has also been working the story.)

On the Republican side, Jonesboro radio man Rick Crawford announced his bid last summer. Meanwhile, The Tolbert Report noted an effort afoot to draft GOP state Rep. Davy Carter to run for the seat. Get ready for an avalanche of Democrats to announce their interest in running for the seat in the coming hours and days.

Makes this a great time to take another look at AP Capitol reporter Andrew Demillo’s weekend assessment that “uncertainty reigns in Arkansas 2010 races.” Good point, Andrew Demillo!

UPDATE: Done deal. Full statement at jump.

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Boozman Mulling Senate Run? Sure, Why Not!

By David Kinkade - January 22, 2010 7:03 am

Rep. John Boozman: What's one more?

Rep. John Boozman, the stalwart lone Republican of the Arkansas Congressional delegation, says he might just get in to the U.S. Senate primary to challenge embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln, too. I haven’t been this excited since Stanley Reed got in the race!

Oh, and another poll out today, now from the Arkansas News Bureau, shows that Lincoln’s approval is finally rebounding after months and months of sagging approval ratings and grim prognoses for her electoral future. Ha ha! No, I’m just kidding, of course. The numbers are still just absolutely terrible for her.

TBQ Poll: Dear Heavens, Does It Ever Suck to Be Blanche Lincoln

By David Kinkade - January 20, 2010 12:36 pm

Roby Brock’s Talk Business Quarterly is out with the latest numbers on embattled Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln, and if you were thinking that Lincoln’s sucky poll numbers had surely bottomed out, well, that just goes to show what you know, because it just keeps getting worse. Fifty-seven percent of Arkansans hold a “strongly unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” view of the state’s senior senator.

Do you think it has anything to do with her support for that reeking turd of a health care bill? No, it couldn’t be that, because that’s just insanely popular, right? Quick, we need someone to explain why that reeking turd of a health care bill is actually a net plus for Democrats, in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Over to you, Blake Rutherford!

And another thing: Am I the only one who finds it strange that TBQ continues to use GOP political strategist Clint Reed to craft these polls, when he’s consulting for the campaign for Republican state Sen. Gilbert Baker — who’s a strong contender to be Lincoln’s challenger in November? Just askin’.

(UPDATE: Roby Brock called to let me know that he typically discloses Reed’s affiliation with the Baker campaign, as well as his Democratic contributor Robert McClarty’s affiliation with that of Attorney General Dustin McDaniel—but that he’d neglected to do so in this case. He has updated his blog post with the disclosures.)

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Shocker: Vic Snyder Bows Out! (Updated)

By David Kinkade - January 15, 2010 4:17 pm

Here, Arkansas: Here’s your political “holy shit” moment of the day—Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder of the Second Congressional District announces he’ll retire. Full statement at jump.

Republican Tim Griffin has been making a spirited run to challenge Snyder on the GOP side, facing Scott Wallace and David Meeks in the Republican primary. Soooo…who will jump in on the Democratic side? In true Arkansas Project fashion, let’s let mindless, ill-informed speculation run rampant. Hash it out in the comments section, fools.

UPDATE: Griffin offers a statement in response, also at jump.

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So Sarah Palin Will Come to Arkansas After All on February 16 (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - January 13, 2010 7:26 am

(Photo credit: Michael Williams/ZUMA Press)

An early morning e-mail showed up promoting a February 16 visit to Arkansas by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for a fundraiser on behalf of the Republican Party of Arkansas.

Palin’s visit was suggested a couple of weeks ago on The Tolbert Report, but some confusion arose because word had leaked out via Facebook before details were finalized. Tolbert had it right to begin with, and it appears the earlier confusion has been cleared up.

Looks like the state GOP is playing it smart with lower cost tickets for the speech ($65 and $35, I’m told), which is a good thing as the event’s slated for Verizon Arena in Little Rock. Tickets for seats at dinner tables on the floor are going for $175. More to come when more details emerge.

UPDATE: I received a subsequent message this morning on this matter, and the correspondent asked that we keep this news “under our hats” until the state GOP has had the opportunity to formally announce the event. So please forget everything that you just read above while we await the formal announcement.

David Sanders to Announce for House Race in District 31

By David Kinkade - January 12, 2010 12:26 pm

Former Arkansas News Bureau columnist David Sanders, a veteran of Arkansas politics and media, will announce his campaign for District 23 31 in the state House of Representatives at noon Wednesday at the Arkansas Capitol. (Sanders began flirting with the notion of running a few weeks ago, as noted by The Arkansas Times, when the U.S. Senate candidate he’d signed up to work with withdrew from the race citing health concerns.)

The conservative Sanders will run as a Republican, of course, setting him up for a primary challenge against John Parke, who’s already announced his intention to the seek the seat. Three Democrats have also said they’ll vie for the seat, which is being vacated by GOP Rep. Dan Greenberg.

Here Are Some Things That Are Going On

By David Kinkade - January 8, 2010 12:57 pm

Man, is it ever cold outside….

(How cold is it, Dave?).

It’s so cold, I went to check the reading on the porch thermometer and I thought I was looking at Blanche Lincoln’s approval ratings! (Heyy-OOOOH!)

Anyway, here’s some political stuff that’s been going down this week that I wanted to note. Maybe you saw some of this scattered around the Arkansas blogosphere the last few days, or maybe you missed it, what the hell do I care what you do with your time:

• Former state Sen. Jim Holt announced that he would indeed enter the GOP primary in the U.S. Senate race to challenge the embattled Lincoln. He even filed paperwork and everything. The Washington Post says it’s one of the top 10 primary races in the country, but they also once ranked The Arkansas Project as a “Top Political Blog,” so who cares what those hacks say.
• GOP state Rep. Mark Martin says he will indeed make a run for secretary of state. Several Democrats have announced for the seat already.
• Republican Mark Darr made his candidacy for lieutenant governor official, and GOP Rep. Roy Ragland said he might just maybe enter the race, too, maybe.

And on Sunday, you’ll want to be sure you’re sitting by your wireless radio at 8 a.m., when I’ll be sitting in as the time filler special guest on Arkansas Sunday Edition with Blake Rutherford of Blake’s Think Tank, on 103.7 The Buzz in Little Rock. I know what you’re thinking: How on earth did Blake land the coveted 7-9 a.m. Sunday morning radio slot? I don’t know, man, he’s just got way more pull than we do.

We’ll probably be blathering on about politics, naturally, and, oh, I don’t know, how much Blake loved “Avatar,” probably. Christ, what a f**kin’ nightmare it will be.

Jim Holt Will Take Your Money Now (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - December 29, 2009 8:57 am

Jim Holt

Not a lot of political news this holiday week, but readers have been opening up some conversation on the potential impact of former state Sen. Jim Holt’s entry into the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, so let’s take note of that development.

Holt’s been flirting with the idea of getting in to the race for months, and he takes an additional step toward the race tonight with a pair of fundraisers in Rogers in Northwest Arkansas.

Any Arkansas Project readers who may happen to be in the neighborhood and want to shoot us a report or a note in the comments section, feel free to do so. Those who want to speculate on The Holt Effect and what it all means, feel free to start duking it out below.

In other Senate primary news, Republican Conrad E. Reynolds announces today that Joe “The Plumber” Wurzelbacher will join him in Arkansas in January for a three-day tour of the state, perhaps the surest sign to date that Reynolds’ underfunded campaign needs to be put out of its misery.

UPDATE: Roby Brock’s Political Buzz blog weighs in with a report on some preliminary numbers, suggesting 75-80 attendees at Holt’s $100 fundraiser and 11 paid attendees at the $1,000 event. Roby also notes that Holt has almost certainly crossed the $5,000 threshold that would require him to file with the Federal Election Commission.

And Mark Moore of the Arkansas Watch blog, who was on the scene for one of the events, offers some additional perspective.

Jimmy Bryant Eyes Secretary of State Bid

By David Kinkade - December 22, 2009 8:54 am

Republican Jimmy Bryant, a justice of the peace on the Faulkner County Quorum Court, tells Joe Lamb of the Log Cabin Democrat newspaper that he may run for secretary of state in 2010. Republican Rep. Mark Martin is also considering the race, and Democrats Mark Wilcox, Doris Tate and Pat O’Brien have all stated their intention to run. More on how the races for state constitutional offices are shaping up over here.

This Arkansas Girl Won ‘Survivor’ (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - December 21, 2009 8:37 am

****UPDATE: I’m keeping this post at the top for a couple of days because the photos are so awesome. New stuff will show up underneath. ****

Come, let us dispense with tiresome talk of the 2010 Senate race (“Will Jim Holt get in? When will Jim Holt get in? Is Jim Holt in yet? Has anyone talked to Jim Holt?” “Jim Holt…call me!” “Jim! Holt!”) and the dreary back and forth over Obamacare to focus on the things that matter most to the Arkansas Project readership.

And so here is Natalie White, a 26-year-old pharmaceutical sales rep from Van Buren, who took home the $1 million dollar prize on the CBS reality show “Survivor,” which means she is now better funded than all of the candidates in the GOP Senate primary. Ha ha! Zing! See how I brought it back around there?

More Natalie at the jump.

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Reed’s Out

By David Kinkade - December 18, 2009 1:42 pm

Remember how last week we all went into a feeding frenzy over the entry of former Arkansas Farm Bureau chief Stanley Reed into the GOP primary for U.S. Senate? Remember? That was a real time, wasn’t it? Yeah, well, about that…never mind.

A Stiff Drink: Greenberg, Kerr at Arkansas Tea Party

By Dan Greenberg - December 17, 2009 1:26 pm

Here is a clip from last Saturday’s Tea Party, which was held in Little Rock’s Doubletree Hotel; it’s me and state Rep. Allen Kerr. A friend of mine came up to me after my talk and said: “Dan, that was the most interesting speech on federalism I have ever heard!” That is probably not a high bar, but I hope you enjoy it.

Video courtesy Kenneth Wallis of Little Rock Immigration Examiner. (Several other videos available at that link.)

Gary Campbell Plans Run for District 64 House Seat

By David Kinkade - December 17, 2009 1:11 pm

Republican Gary Campbell of Fort Smith is spreading the word that he’s planning a run for Arkansas House of Representatives in District 64. The seat is currently held by GOP first-termer Stephanie Malone, setting us up for another primary race.

Campbell’s full news release at jump.

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Amateur Hour for Arkansas GOP

By David Kinkade - December 11, 2009 12:51 pm

It’s amateur hour for the Republican Party of Arkansas, which has cranked up their moral dudgeon to “high” in response to a throw-away comment from the state Democrats’ executive director in a recent news story.

Here’s the background: On Tuesday, former GOP Rep. Michael Lamoureux won a special election to be the next state senator for District 4. Asked for response, state Democrats offered this to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette’s Mike Wickline :

Mariah Hatta, executive director of the state Democratic Party, said she hopes Lamoureux “will work across party lines for the good of our people and avoid the hyper-partisanship cult of Republican legislators, mostly in the House, who would like to make the Capitol in Little Rock more like the one in Washington.”

That “cult” bit didn’t go down too well with GOP chair Doyle Webb and House  minority leader Bryan King, who issued hyperventilating statements declaring, in effect, “We are not a cult.”

OK, let’s review some elementary political communication tactics, such as, when someone makes a charge against you, you DON”T REPEAT THE CHARGE. Why? Because it simply reinforces the idea in people’s minds, rather than refuting it.  Here, let’s let Ryan Sager explain how that works:

People use “perceived familiarity” with a supposed “fact” as a mental shortcut to judge its truth. Thus, if they hear “X isn’t true,” over time they simply remember “X.” So, for instance, if you’re the Democrats during the health care debate, you don’t want to get stuck repeating, “There are no death panels.” What people remember from that is, “Man, there’s sure a lot of controversy over these ‘death panels’ I hear so much about.”

Well put, Ryan Sager! So when people hear Republicans leaders protest, “We are not a cult!”, they don’t share the deep sense of offense. They’re more likely to simply remember the nouns: “GOP=Cult.” (If you’re running for office in the coming year, feel free to clip ‘n’ save this little lesson. It may come in handy when you have to run a little campaign damage control of your own.)

Now, Hatta’s comment was dumb — over-the-top and needlessly provocative-for-the-sake-of-being-provocative. But the Republican response, purposely elevating the throw-away smear buried in a newspaper story into a Big Issue, is worse, because they allowed themselves to be provoked, to no useful end.

It may be too much to ask the state’s GOP leaders to think like professional communication strategists. But at the very least, they might refrain from embarrassing themselves with tactics that are self-defeating and monumentally retarded.

UPDATE: No sooner do I hit “publish” on this piece than a news release arrives from GOP Senate candidate Conrad Reynolds, taking a breather from not raising money for his campaign, pushing the same goddamn lines. This. This is the hill they’ve chosen to stand and fight upon. Attention Democrats: Give Mariah Hatta a fat bonus! Full Reynolds statement at jump.

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Reed’s In

By David Kinkade - December 10, 2009 6:38 pm

Reed

Former Arkansas Farm Bureau chieftain Stanley Reed says he’ll enter the GOP primary field in the 2010 U.S. Senate race. Once you’re finished digesting that, feast on the fact that Arkansas News Bureau columnist David Sanders will serve as his campaign manager.

Wondering: Will Reed have to declare Sanders’ column that ran one day ago, in newspapers throughout the state, critiquing the rest of the GOP field, as an in-kind contribution? Memo to John Brummett: Get on this! Easy Sunday column!