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A Stray Thought On Blanche Lincoln’s Money
Regular readers of this blog know all too well my unhealthy obsession with campaign money matters, especially as they relate to the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Arkansas.
Now here’s retired Army Col. Conrad Reynolds, who announced Monday he is running as a Republican to challenge Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, telling the AP he intends to raise $500,000 by the end of the year.
Let’s run a little thought experiment here. Lincoln has raised an average of about $500,000 each month this year, for a total of about $3 million to date. If she were to continue raising money at that rate for the next 16 months—not even speeding up her pace, just staying steady at the pace she’s kept up to date—she could conceivably raise $11 MILLION for the whole race.
I’m not saying she WILL raise that much money—only that there’s a conceivable pathway to such numbers.
I’m also not saying that the Republican challenger will need to match her dollar for dollar to be competitive. But he’ll still need a lot. The question is, do any of the Republican hopefuls really grasp how much money they’re going to need to do this?
$11 million? I don’t even know how you would spend that much money on a race in Arkansas, do you? I suppose you could if you were to pay your campaign staff salaries so big they would make Ernie Passailaigue blush.
I’m just kidding, of course. I can’t even imagine a salary number so big that it would make Ernie Passailaigue blush.
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10 Responses to “A Stray Thought On Blanche Lincoln’s Money”
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July 20th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
Hey, and we have so many republican’s who smell blood in the water that all of our money will get spent on the dang primary. I refuse to contribute to the primary campaign of any of these guys.
Another stray thought, are there enough senate challengers yet to give Kim Hendren a legitimate shot?
July 21st, 2009 at 5:21 am
While I agree with what you said, it must be noted that Blanche outspent Holt $6 Million to $140,000 and only won by 12%. If the right Repub gets the nomination, I see that person needing only to raise what Asa raised in 2006. Between that and what the NRSC would commit to the right candidate, Blanche could be beat. Having said that, it would take the right candidate to just match what Asa raised, since this is a down economy and all.
July 21st, 2009 at 10:21 am
Yep. That Asa campaign showed republicans how to win an underfunded race.
July 21st, 2009 at 10:36 am
…and Im gonna be the first lottery winner in Arkansas.
July 21st, 2009 at 10:42 am
Asa raised a little more than $3 million in 2006, Rett, and trust me, it wasn’t enough. And I wouldn’t count on the NRSC to water my plants while I was out of town for five days, much less to provide anything useful to my campaign.
D.
July 21st, 2009 at 1:20 pm
It’s not the first 45% of the vote that costs a lot of money….. it’s the last 6% that is expensive and elusive. Jim Holt got what any Republican would get if they had their name on the ballot. We can get that without spending much at all. The last 6% is gonna cost you 5 or 6 million.
July 21st, 2009 at 3:24 pm
And, of course, don’t dare have any children acting in your ads near the end as that is the gravest sin possible.
July 21st, 2009 at 4:02 pm
I believe Tim Hutchinson would tell you that the NRSC was critical in his victory in 1996 and that they almost saved his hide in 2002. I’m not advocating being the underfunded candidate is the best thing. It just happens to be our only way. Santorum spent $28.4 million and Casey spent only $17.5 million. Santorum lost by the widest margin ever for an incumbent. Now that may seem like a lot of money, but in PA it really isn’t. The bottom line is all this whining about money is moot. It is a reality that if we want to win we will have to deal with.
July 21st, 2009 at 11:25 pm
Good laugh… now I can’t get “Duck Tales” out of my head. Woo-oo!
January 26th, 2010 at 11:58 am
[...] I noted that, if Lincoln were to continue raising funds at the rate of roughly $500,000 per month, she could conceivably raise $11 million for the race. For this election cycle in total, she’s now raised more than $7 million, which I believe is [...]