Arkansas Project Weekend Political Round-Up
The Arkansas Project’s been a little slow off the mark this morning, but here are a few stray things from over the weekend:
The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette continues its look at legislative races around the state, but they’re not readily available online if you’re not a subscriber. (I argued last week that they SHOULD be, but thus far the ADG has been surprisingly unwilling to knuckle under to my demands.) On Sunday, the ADG took a closer look at the race between Republican Kelly Eichler and Democrat John Edwards in Little Rock’s District 38, a race that is proving to be surprisingly competitive in the traditionally Democratic district.
Meanwhile, up in Washington County, the ADG examines the District 89 House race between Democratic Rep. Jim House and Republican challenger Gene Long. House has this gimmick of riding a horse everywhere he goes, like Dennis Weaver in “McCloud,” which is kind of a strange thing to do, but it’s memorable. Long thinks the race should be decided on issues, not horsemanship. I think that, rather than complaining, Long should get a gimmick of his own. Maybe he could ride a Segway everywhere he goes. That would be pretty memorable, plus it would nail down the support of the coveted “Dorks on Electric Scooters” demographic.
Columnist David Sanders had a nice get on Sunday with his eyewitness report of a Little Rock church loaning out its van to deliver signs on behalf of Mark Leverett, a judicial candidate who faces Gary Sullivan in the Pulaski County District Judge race. Sullivan tells Sanders that he’s unable to make hay over the campaign law violation.
Oh, and I did watch the second episode of Mike Huckabee’s new show, “Huckabee,” on FOX News on Sunday evening. Legendary actor Jon Voight and radio host Neil Boortz were the guests, along with some hockey moms from New Hampshire who gave GOP VP nominee Sarah Palin a thumbs up. The band played “Sweet Home Chicago.” Week 2 review: It’s still just not very good. (Here’s Huckabee’s opening commentary on the financial bail-out from last night’s show.)
Finally, Blake Rutherford at the Think Tank has his updated electoral college projections, and like other projections, they will give you little cheer if you’re a McCain supporter like The Arkansas Project.
(As before, click on candidates’ names above to visit their campaign websites.)
11 thoughts on “Arkansas Project Weekend Political Round-Up”
Barack Obama is probably going to be the next president, but I gotta question Blake on some of his state polling. It looks like he just went out and found the best poll numbers for Obama from each state and used them as an example of how Obama was going to win. Obama isn’t winning by 7% in Ohio, nor is he winning in Virginia or Florida. Rasmussen had Obama up by one point in Colorado and Blake has Colorado as almost certainly an Obama state.
Obama will win Iowa and most likely New Mexico. That puts him within 8 electoral votes of winning. Obama will most likely lose Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. This race wil boil down to Colorado. I think Obama will win Colorado, but this ain’t going to be an electoral landslide for Obama.
What about John Burris’ state house race in Harrison?
Obama wins Colorado and Virginia maybe Ohio. That would make it a landslide.
Burris is winning bigtime this Fall. He’s in an unbeatable Republican district, he’s working his tailend off up there and his opponent is a used car salesman.
I know you’re in Grant County, but I know you’re also connected around the state. Any read on the House vs. Long race in Washington County?
That one depends on several factors. The district is about a 55% Republican district. Jim House won by 47 votes two years ago against a very weak opponent in a very bad GOP year.
House works very hard doing door-to-door and is seen sitting on a horse at intersections all over the district during rush hour.
Gene Long has several advantages. He’s got enough money to get his message to the voters and John McCain is going get over 60% of the vote there. Additionally, the Democrats in that district are Clinton Democrats. Obama will really hurt down ballot Democrats there.
Long ought to win that seat and if he does what he needs to do he’ll be the next legislator for dist. 89.
Bill from Sheridan,
The Electoral Update is a snapshot of where the election stands every Monday. It’s not a tool to demonstrate a victory for either candidate. If you review prior editions you’ll see that McCain maintained an advantage until recently. Also, feel free to compare it to Karl Rove, NY Times, NBC and Washington Post and see if you still think I’m off track.
As for the use of polls, I take the most current poll I find prior to Monday. If I miss one, I catch it the next week.
The cite Virginia, Nevada and Ohio as arguments for how The Electoral Update is biased in favor of Obama. Let’s let the numbers tell the story.
There are two polls from Virginia released today that show Obama leading by 12 points and 10 points. I only saw the one with him leading by 9 which was released last week. Three polls that far outside the margin of error would certainly suggest that Obama is doing quite well there.
In Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch released a poll on Sunday showing Obama up 7. A Quinnipiac poll released last Wednesday has Obama up 8 points.
In Nevada Rasmussen has Obama up 4 and outside the margin of error. CNN/Time released a poll last Wednesday that found the same thing.
You may have access to top secret polling data. If you do and you want to share the results, please let me know.
Blake, I should say I didn’t know that your post was solely intended to be a snap shot of the present situation. I’d never been to your site before. That being said, the Real Clear Politics average has Obama with a 1.8% lead in Nevada. The RPC average in Colorado is a 3% lead for Obama but with a tie in their most recent poll, and the RPC average for Ohio is Obama + 3%.
McCain’s numbers went in the tank because of this finaicial crisis everywhere. As we move further away from this bailout mess McCain’s numbers will improve. nationawide. The question is will McCain/Palin’s attacks on Obama’s connections with Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers have an impact. If they do then this race will be very tight.
Well, damn, I was hoping Bill had a bunch of top secret polling data tucked away in a silo down there somewhere in Grant County.
Sadly, unlike David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, I don’t have secret polling.
Click my name for the article
…David Plouffe, was more pointed when asked about the findings at a briefing on Monday, telling a Washington Post reporter, “Your poll is wrong.”
Bill from Sheridan,
I hope you will visit the site. Also, while I love Real Clear Politics, I’m not a fan of poll averages for many reasons, so I avoid them all together. There are just too many questions, including the impact that current events have on public opinion. You cite the economic meltdown, which is an appropriate one. There’s a strong argument that every poll taken two weeks ago is totally meaningless. The same could be said two weeks from today if, as you predict, Ayers and Wright widdle away at voters’ newfound confidence in Obama.
We’ll see. Still, you’re a loyal Arkansas Project readers (me too), and I hope you’ll spend some time on the Think Tank.