2010 Senate Poll: Huckabee vs. Lincoln?
Max Brantley at the Arkansas Times blog is looking forward to the 2010 and 2012 campaigns, and wants to know: Will Mike Huckabee challenge Blanche Lincoln for her U.S. Senate seat in 2010?
Max wants to hear from Arkansas Project readers, all 30 of them, which is as shocking to me as it is to you.
For my part, I’m not sure what’s more troubling: The fact that Max now thinks he’s my assignment editor, telling me what to do, or the fact that I’m actually doing it.
Anyway, you haven’t been to the polls since Tuesday, so let’s weigh in:
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13 thoughts on “2010 Senate Poll: Huckabee vs. Lincoln?”
Thanks David. Heck, your little poll reminds me I can do same. these internets tubes are wonderful.
Greetings to all the loyal opposition.
Yeah, I was a little worried about what I was going to do with the poll feature after Election Day. I was thinking of running daily polls on where I should eat lunch, but I’m not sure how exciting that would be for our readers.
I’m a Huckabee fan – which is exactly why he SHOULD NOT run against Blanche Lincoln. Unless the left tells him to.
Sure, Lincoln is the Gordon Smith of 2010. Smart enough to get elected by running a moderate course in a state that trends to the other Party – but surrounded by people in her own Party who don’t like her. (Which is odd. She is far more liberal than either Mark Pryor or the Governor. Methinks she just doesn’t kiss enough ass in Little Rock to make the wine-sippers in the Heights happy). If the Republicans are insurgent in 2010, and have a decent candidate, her weakness with the liberals coupled with a strong Republican tide could be enough to push her out.
Ironically, its those liberals who could actually cost the Democrats the seat. I think the folks over at the Arkansas Times blog, for instance, would probably like to see Lincoln bumped in the primary. Hooray – fresh faced liberal to take on an evil Republican! It’s so cute! It’s so Obama!!!! Too bad for them, her money advantage and generally positive name ID would be enough to take all primary comers and she would just go into the general election drug-left, crippled, and poor.
If there is a token Republican running, she would still crush him. Again, her name ID and ability to refill the coffers would keep her safe. However, against Huckabee she would need a full arsenal and the primary battle would make her lame and lefty. A fully relaxed Huckabee would cruise to victory.
However, what if Lincoln doesn’t have to shift left and spend all her cash? That is the real danger for Huckabee. He could be President someday! unless he stumbles back home and loses. If Lincoln is free to stay center left, close to the business community and the farmers (who are her base) and raise all the dough that she gets from being on the most powerful Committee in Congress – she beats him and he is through forever. It’s a risk reward issue. Its too much to risk running against a healthy and powerful Lincoln. It’s perfect if the left gets greedy. But . . .
If Obama moves the country left and Lincoln doesn’t go along, she will draw a Democratic challenger and it will make the run enticing for Huckabee. However, if Obama moves the country to the left, Huckabee could maybe beat Obama. Why would he aim so low?
If Mike does run and win, hopefully the federal government won’t grow as much as the state government did while he was in office.
Nicely done analysis, Clark Haruspex.
I’m a new reader, David. Now you’ve got 31 of us!
Oh Brett… you’ve got a point.
What big state money would get behind Huckabee? Walton? Nah, if Blanche supports their education efforts. Tyson? Nah, too many agri subsidies and state PCE forebearance. Stephenses? Maybe Warren, but not Witt if Huckabee stays close to Sheffield, higher severance tax, Nelson. Murphy? Likely split between Claiborne Demming (Blanche) and Madison Murphy (Huckabee). Taken together not enough money to unseat Miss Blanche. National money will be scarce for Huckabee, now known as a tax and spender, and especially after Blanche votes against cloture and helps sustain a filibuster on some lefty legislation.
They surely could use Huck in Washington but I believe he is much better off getting weekly national exposure on Fox and planning for a run for president in 2012. Of course, if HE DID run for the senate, he could actually earn a salary while he ran for president like Obama and McCain did this time. Huck has much more to offer than the influence he wouldh have in the senate. We need him as president.
If Blanche does not get behind an aggressive FDR-style program to get this country moving again, I won’t vote for her next time. Why in the world would I vote for Huck, though? Maybe I’d vote for him for a Fox-style huckster, but certainly not for public service. If my choices are Lincoln and Huck, I’ll go Green. Some on this list seem to think she’s liberal just because she’s less right than Pryor. They both need to go and let real Democrats lead Arkansans, educate them on the realities of the economy (better under Democrats,studies always show) and important community efforts like education. Why, if an Obama initiative takes off, Korean and Japanese companies might not reject Arkansas because the educational and cultural level of its people is so low!
The only things “studies always show” is that a study can show whatever its practitioners wish.
I buy what Clark says. Makes a lot of sense. Good stuff.
One question, I believe it would hurt Huckabee either way if he runs for Senate. He would be ask about plans in 2012. I hate when a person runs for election for one office while still serving another office. They should have to resign the office they hold to run for higher office.
It just makes me mad me!
Blanche Lincoln has represented Arkansas in the US Senate for I believe 18 years. And, I look forward for her being our US Senator for a very long time…
Co President of Jackson County Young Democrats