The Arkansas Project

Maybe We Should Start Doing This Again

By David Kinkade - February 22, 2010 10:25 am

Well look who's back. (Photo credit CBS)

Believe me, team, should you ever dare to start up a blog and then take some time away from it, boy howdy, will you ever hear about it.

As a result of my hiatus these last couple of weeks, I’ve received a steady stream of reader e-mails, telephone calls and personal confrontations filled with complaints, insults, nagging and threats. But enough about Arkansas Project Girlfriend….

So maybe we’ll start ramping up again this week, ever so slowly, so as not to hurt ourselves. Let’s start with a) a new photo of that Arkansas chick who won CBS’ “Survivor” a few weeks ago (the “TV Guide” page where I found that photo says it’s her, but if so she looks really different from the earlier shots) and b) some long-delayed updates to our candidate lists. Quite a few changes to the First, Second and Third District congressional races, among others. (Let me know what updates we’re missing on the state legislative races front.)

The good news is that over the next couple of weeks we’ll start to get a much firmer sense of what all of these primary races will look like, since candidate filing starts March 1 and wraps up March 8. Which Senate candidates will wake up and face reality, once they’re faced with actually having to write a check for $12,500? (*cough*Curtis Coleman!*cough*Conrad Reynolds!*ahem*) I can’t wait to find out!

And among the things I missed last week…seriously, a “TWITTERVIEW” with Sen. Blanche Lincoln? My friends, we have now arrived at the absolutely stupidest possible confluence between the worlds of social media and politics. Alas.

Oh, Yeah, John Boozman’s Getting In, Too (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - January 29, 2010 7:05 am

Photo courtesy of Arkansas Project reader Mike, who has a thing for both Boozman and impossibly leggy chicks posing in uncomfortable stances.

After a week-long tease that he was considering getting into the Arkansas GOP Senate primary for a chance to challenge embattled U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Rep. John Boozman’s getting in, someone who would probably know tells me.

Of course, they’re telling everyone they can find, so it’s hardly exclusive. You might think they’d just issue a press release instead of offering a steady stream of breathless “sources say/you didn’t hear this from me” messages to everyone in the world, one by one, which appears to be the strategy.

As the lone Republican in the state’s Congressional delegation, Boozman will emerge as a strong candidate given his regional strength in Northwest Arkansas, proven fundraising ability, and dear God does anyone even bother reading these pat “impact” analyses at this point when the impacts are mostly obvious—I mean, you’re probably not even reading this sentence anymore, and if you are the question is, why, because it’s not like there’s going to be anything in this graf that you haven’t read before or even thought up yourself, right?

Boozman’s always struck me as a nice fellow but he has the charisma of an elbow. The End.

Oh, no, wait, one more thing: Jim Lindsey! Might run! OK, now really The End.

UPDATE: In a news release issued today, Boozman says to stay tuned till February 6, when he’ll have an “important announcement” about his political future. Golly, I wonder what it could be?

Boozman Mulling Senate Run? Sure, Why Not!

By David Kinkade - January 22, 2010 7:03 am

Rep. John Boozman: What's one more?

Rep. John Boozman, the stalwart lone Republican of the Arkansas Congressional delegation, says he might just get in to the U.S. Senate primary to challenge embattled Sen. Blanche Lincoln, too. I haven’t been this excited since Stanley Reed got in the race!

Oh, and another poll out today, now from the Arkansas News Bureau, shows that Lincoln’s approval is finally rebounding after months and months of sagging approval ratings and grim prognoses for her electoral future. Ha ha! No, I’m just kidding, of course. The numbers are still just absolutely terrible for her.

TBQ Poll: Dear Heavens, Does It Ever Suck to Be Blanche Lincoln

By David Kinkade - January 20, 2010 12:36 pm

Roby Brock’s Talk Business Quarterly is out with the latest numbers on embattled Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln, and if you were thinking that Lincoln’s sucky poll numbers had surely bottomed out, well, that just goes to show what you know, because it just keeps getting worse. Fifty-seven percent of Arkansans hold a “strongly unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” view of the state’s senior senator.

Do you think it has anything to do with her support for that reeking turd of a health care bill? No, it couldn’t be that, because that’s just insanely popular, right? Quick, we need someone to explain why that reeking turd of a health care bill is actually a net plus for Democrats, in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Over to you, Blake Rutherford!

And another thing: Am I the only one who finds it strange that TBQ continues to use GOP political strategist Clint Reed to craft these polls, when he’s consulting for the campaign for Republican state Sen. Gilbert Baker — who’s a strong contender to be Lincoln’s challenger in November? Just askin’.

(UPDATE: Roby Brock called to let me know that he typically discloses Reed’s affiliation with the Baker campaign, as well as his Democratic contributor Robert McClarty’s affiliation with that of Attorney General Dustin McDaniel—but that he’d neglected to do so in this case. He has updated his blog post with the disclosures.)

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Grim Poll Numbers Continue for Lincoln

By David Kinkade - December 3, 2009 9:16 am

In what has become a familiar refrain, the latest numbers on the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Arkansas continue to show Sen. Blanche Lincoln faring poorly. Survey results released today by Rasmussen show Lincoln trailing in head-to-head match-ups against Republicans Gilbert Baker, Curtis Coleman, Tom Cox and Kim Hendren.

Rasmussen also shows that Arkansas voters’ enthusiasm for the health care reform proposals coming out of Washington D.C. are tepid. Full report over here if you feel like going to pick over the whole thing in detail, or you can just be like me and look at the headline and move on, because there’s been entirely too many damn polls already and we’ve still got 11 months of this to go.

And it probably doesn’t help matters for Lincoln much when former Democratic presidential hopeful and national committee chair Howard Dean goes on MSNBC and talks up a potential primary challenge to the state’s senior senator. Et tu, Howard?:

Yeah, that probably doesn’t help much.

A Challenge for Republican Senate Candidates

By David Kinkade - November 30, 2009 10:07 am

Blogging machine Jason Tolbert has a good post over at The Tolbert Report touching on Republican Senate hopeful Conrad Reynolds’ plans for financing his 2010 campaign. Reynolds, like many of the Republican hopefuls, has been slow off the mark in raising money for the race. As of the last reporting period, Reynolds had some $43,000 on hand (with $30,000 of that total being Reynolds’ own money).

Let’s go to Tolbert’s video:

Note the artful use of the passive voice when Reynolds talks about campaign money. It’s going to “flow into this state,” and “they’ll match anything that she’s got.” It absolves him of responsibility for raising money for his own campaign, right? After all, that money is simply going to flow!

This is not to pick on Reynolds, particularly; it’s a common trope among the under-funded and under-performing candidates to argue they don’t need to raise money because “the money will be there.” Well…perhaps. Or perhaps not. Are you sure you wanna stake your campaign on that?

But I don’t want to be overly negative, so let’s make a deal. Here’s the assignment for all these lower-tier candidates in the Republican Senate primary: Let’s set a threshold target of, oh, let’s say $4 million. You go raise $4 million, and you don’t even have to spend it—just park it in the bank.

Then, if your theories about all of this magical money “flowing” into the state turn out to be true, and you didn’t need the $4 million, you can simply return it to the contributors once you’ve won the race, and I’ll admit that I was terribly, terribly wrong. You can even park the money in a CD and maybe hold on to the interest you generate in the meantime.

You’ll have proven your point that money isn’t that important, but without the risk of entering the campaign season lacking the money you’ll need to run a competitive campaign. It would have the added benefit of proving that you CAN raise the money, and that your failures to do so thus far have not been a function of inability or unwillingness to do the basic things that a campaign requires.

Sound like a good deal? I thought so.

Now Drew Pritt Is Running for U.S. Senate, Too

By David Kinkade - October 24, 2009 2:42 pm

Perennial Democratic candidate Drew Pritt sends along word that he, too, will join the ever-expanding universe of Arkansas people who think that Sen. Blanche Lincoln must be replaced. Full text of Pritt’s news release is at the jump.

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Stanley Reed Now Thinks He Might Like To Be A U.S. Senator, Too, Maybe, and Maybe Bill Halter, Too. Maybe.

By David Kinkade - October 22, 2009 7:51 pm

Reed

Do you wake up in the morning and look in the mirror and think, “Hey, I should run for the U.S. Senate!”? If not, you are evidently among the minority of Arkansans.

So go ahead and add former Arkansas Farm Bureau godfather Stanley Reed to the list of Republicans who might, just might, want to challenge embattled Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln in 2010. He says he’s weighing the race after earlier saying he would not run, says columnist David Sanders, because Reed now sees Lincoln as being weighed down by the Democratic agenda. Buuuuurn!

Meanwhile, the wearisome “Bill Halter Might Challenge Lincoln in a Primary!” rumor continues to float around.  Look, either get in the damn race or clearly state you won’t run. Sheesh, this guy.

Yeah, I’ve updated The List.

2010 Senate Money Race: Who Can We Send To the Deadpool?

By David Kinkade - October 15, 2009 2:23 pm

The Tolbert Report is rounding up some of the financial reports from various Arkansas candidates for U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, so to supplement Jason’s efforts I’ve created this handy graph of the financial performance of several of the Senate candidates.

So who will survive for another quarter, and which of these walking wounded campaigns should we be shuffling off to the deadpool? Here’s what this graph tells us:

• If you’re over on the left side of the graph, your fundraising efforts are showing some vigor, and you should keep doing what you’re doing!
• If you’re grouped in the middle of the pack there (and/or heavily dependent upon personal loans to your own campaign), ehhhh, I don’t know, man, you either need to step it up or start planning a graceful exit. Y’know, like maybe a quiet departure from the race around the holidays, when no one’s really paying that much attention. The first person to proclaim that “This campaign is about the message, not the money” will automatically be shifted to the deadpool. Trust me, because I’ve tried that and it doesn’t work.
• If you’re one of those guys over there on the far right side of the graph, please note that I have so little confidence in your chances that I haven’t even bothered to find your photo to cut your head out. I can’t even muster the energy to make funny pictures of you. Think about that for a little bit.

Here’s the full list of announced/considering/rumored Senate candidates for 2010. I look forward to making it shorter soon, so let’s get moving on some of those aforementioned graceful exits.

Reynolds a Nimrod, Says Jonesboro Newsman

By David Kinkade - October 7, 2009 8:35 am

Conrad E. Reynolds

Fun media goof-up story from Roll Call today about one of Arkansas’ many GOP Senate hopefuls and the news director of the NPR outlet at Arkansas State University.

Candidate Conrad E. Reynolds has been making quite a bit of noise lately with a steady stream of news releases and press statements, and news director Greg Chance at ASU’s public radio station has apparently had enough:

Army Col. Conrad Reynolds is one of several Republicans vying to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for Arkansas’ Senate seat in 2010. Reynolds’ campaign issued a press release last week blasting Lincoln for a vote, and among those who received it was Greg Chance, the news director of an NPR affiliate based at Arkansas State University. From Roll Call, via Newsbusters:

Army Col. Conrad Reynolds is one of several Republicans vying to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for Arkansas’ Senate seat in 2010. Reynolds’ campaign issued a press release last week blasting Lincoln for a vote, and among those who received it was Greg Chance, the news director of an NPR affiliate based at Arkansas State University.

It seems Chance attempted to forward the e-mail to Katie Laning Niebaum, Lincoln’s Washington-based communications director. In his forward, which HOH obtained, Chance mocked the press release and even the campaign’s logo, which features the Army colonel insignia.

“There was another one from this nimrod earlier today which I lost. I just love his logo. That ought to go over really well with the enlisted people. (ha ha),” he writes.

One problem: Chance must have hit the “reply” button instead, because his message went straight to Kenneth Ryan James, the campaign’s spokesman.

Please note the particularly telling detail in the story, which is that Chance evidently thought he was communicating directly with Lincoln’s press secretary. Cozy. (Roll Call is subscription only, so link goes to Newsbusters write-up of the exchange.)

I requested a copy of the e-mail from Reynolds spokesman, K. Ryan James, and a screenshot is posted at the jump. The Reynolds campaign’s full response is available at his site.

While we’re on the Reynolds beat, congrats to the candidate and his wife on the birth of their new son yesterday.

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Gilbert Baker Now Has A Big Pile of Money

By David Kinkade - October 5, 2009 11:36 am

Arkansas Sen. Gilbert Baker, who entered the insanely crowded GOP primary for U.S. Senate just a few weeks ago, announces today he raised some $500,000 in the third quarter—a commanding performance that establishes Baker as the front-runner on the GOP side. Baker’s full statement is at the jump.

While we’re on the 2010 Senate race, why not watch this good discussion of said campaign between Talk Business impresario Roby Brock and Blake’s Think Tank mastermind Blake Rutherford?:

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Rasmussen: Lincoln Still Facing Choppy Poll Numbers

By David Kinkade - September 29, 2009 7:53 pm

Since we’ve now dedicated ourselves to hyping every poll that comes out on the 2010 Senate race, let’s hype another, shall we? The liberal Talking Points Memo blog points to new polling results from Rasmussen Reports, and the numbers continue to look ugly for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Four Republicans named in the poll actually run ahead of the incumbent Democrat:

State Senator Gilbert Baker runs best against Lincoln so far, beating her by eight points – 47% to 39%. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, with eight percent (8%) undecided.

State Senator Minority Leader Kim Hendren beats Lincoln 44% to 41%, with five percent (5%) favoring another candidate and 10% undecided.

Curtis Coleman, a private businessman with ties to former Arkansas governor and presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, holds a 43% to 41% lead over the incumbent. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided.

Just as close is Tom Cox, head of the Arkansas T.E.A. Party, who leads Lincoln 43% to 40%, with six percent (6%) favoring another candidate and 11% undecided.

Twenty-six percent (26%) of Arkansas voters have a very favorable opinion of Lincoln, while 28% view her very unfavorably. Just four percent (4%) don’t have an opinion of the incumbent senator.

Rough stuff, much of it apparently driven by antipathy to Democratic health care reform efforts, according to this survey. More at Rasmussen’s site here.

Wait, does that headline say “choppy poll numbers”? Now that I read back over it I’m not even sure what that’s supposed to mean. “Choppy waters,” sure, but can numbers be “choppy”? I don’t know, man. I have no idea how I come up with this crap, either.

Lincoln Ups Her Game

By David Kinkade - September 9, 2009 5:12 pm

Sen. Blanche Lincoln, perhaps feeling the heat now that the Kim Hendren For Senate juggernaut is gearing up, steps things up by announcing that she’ll take over the chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture Committee. Full release at jump.

Lincoln needed some good news after her rather terrible August, and this is definitely a coup for the vulnerable senator going into a tough re-election campaign.

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Baker’s In! He’s In! He’s In!

By David Kinkade - September 1, 2009 11:39 am

Eeeeeeeeee! After months of annoying vacillation, Arkansas Sen. Gilbert Baker has pulled the trigger, announcing today that he is, indeed, jumping into the increasingly crowded Republican primary for U.S. Senate to earn a shot at challenging embattled Democratic U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln. (Politico lists Lincoln on their “August Recess Casualty List.” Ouch.)

Full statement from Baker at jump.

Your move, Tom Cotton….

Here’s the full running list of announced, considering and rumored-to-be-considering candidates.

The Politics in Arkansas blog rounds up the responses from the D.C. flacks at the national party committees, so I don’t have to.

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New Lincoln Poll Numbers Looking Ugly (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - August 26, 2009 10:34 am

Wait, what's she smiling about?

The latest numbers from Public Policy Polling’s recent survey of Arkansas are out today, and they ain’t pretty for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who’s commanding a tepid 36 percent approval rating in the state, with three potential GOP challengers—Sen. Gilbert Baker, Curtis Coleman and Tom Cotton—all within the margin of error in head-to-head match-ups. (Two of those dudes, Baker and Cotton, haven’t even announced they’ll be running at this point.)

Compounding the ugliness for Lincoln in today’s media mix is this sterling column from the Arkansas News Bureau’s David Sanders, who last week broke the news that Democratic state Sen. Bob Johnson was mulling a primary run against Lincoln. Sanders gets Johnson on the record talking about the whys and wherefores of his flirtation with higher office:

Johnson has concluded that part of Lincoln’s electoral troubles stem from the fact that she’s never become  an adored Arkansas politician, like many of her predecessors who served in the U.S. Senate.

“Going to Washington doesn’t mean you have to stop being who you are — that is part of the problem, which adds to the pretentious phony-isms we get out of D.C.,” he said. “People don’t like functionaries.”

But, Johnson also observes the obvious. Her situation, he said, has been made worse by the fact that voters have become openly hostile to Washington incumbents.

“Sometimes candidates just get into a death spiral – an inverted roll – and can’t pull out of it,” he said. According to Johnson, Lincoln is caught up in a much larger problem, and a lot of incumbent politicians are in her situation.

“Death spiral”? Yikes. Hey, maybe this news will encourage another 8 to 10 people to jump into the race.

Blogger Jason Tolbert has more over at The Tolbert Report, as does Max Brantley at the Arkansas Times. Meanwhile, youngblood blogger Zack “Nick” Stovall says “Bah!” to you and your tiresome polling numbers, thereby affecting an air of hardened political cynicism not typically found in someone who only started shaving last week.

UPDATE: Sanders comes back with a blog post about Sen. Gilbert Baker, whom he says will jump into the race by announcing the formation of an exploratory committee on September 1. That’s Tuesday of next week, as of this writing. We’ll see.  I hesitated to even point it up, so weary am I of Baker’s indecisive Hamlet routine on this question, so make of that what you will.

What’s Bob Johnson’s Angle?

By David Kinkade - August 22, 2009 11:36 am

Sen. Bob "Robert" Johnson

Arkansas News Bureau columnist David “J.” Sanders broke the news yesterday that Sen. Bob Johnson, Democrat from Bigelow, is considering a primary challenge to Sen. Blanche Lincoln. (Sanders floated the rumor on his blog over at AETN. That’s right: Sanders is blogging now. That means that, in addition to his twice-weekly column, monthly television show, Twitter feed and regular KARN radio appearances, he’s now able to annoy you entertain and inform you on an entirely new platform).

Johnson confirmed the rumor shortly thereafter, and he told reporter John Lyon that he’s a “Harry Truman Democrat” and made some statements that indicate he’d be running against the reigning Democratic majority in Washington. “Mr. Johnson must have decided the Republican primary is too crowded,” Lincoln’s campaign manager, Steve Patterson, wryly notes.

Now, Bob Johnson is a calculating man, so I’ve been trying to wrap my head around what his calculations might be. Lincoln commands an impressive fundraising apparatus, so he can’t compete on money; he admits as much in his interview with Lyon. He’s a more conservative Democrat than Lincoln, so he’ll run to her right. Is Lincoln weak among conservative-leaning rural Dems? Johnson also says that he’s received encouragement from current and former state legislators. Is that to suggest that Lincoln has unsteady relations with the state Democratic machine?

Or perhaps it’s all just a function of things like this. And things like this:

Anyway, I’ve added Johnson to our ever-lengthening list of 2010 Senate candidates.

Late Arrival: Tom Cotton Still Eyeing Senate Race

By David Kinkade - August 10, 2009 1:35 pm

Will Republican attorney Tom Cotton, just back from U.S. Army duty in Afghanistan, declare for U.S. Senate soon? Perhaps!

We were noting the buzz that Cotton would challenge Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln a couple of months back, and columnist John Brummett pushed the story along last week with his note that Cotton was meeting with Arkansas Sen. Gilbert Baker to discuss the race.

And today, there it is on the national Powerline blog: “Now, in light of the weakness of the Republican field, (Cotton) is thinking about filling the void.” Meme alert! Meme alert! Discuss.

Don’t forget to check our (absurdly long) list of potential challengers to Lincoln. It will really make you think when you see some of the names on this list.  You’ll think things like “Who?” and “Why?” and “Huh?”

Arkansas’ Marquee Race: U.S. Senate 2010

By David Kinkade - August 6, 2009 4:34 pm

Last week we started publishing our lists of candidates for political office in Arkansas, and we add to that ongoing project today with a listing for the 2010 U.S. Senate race. List of candidates (including rumored candidates, considering candidates and exploring candidates) is right over here.

Let me know if I’ve missed anyone, because God knows there are so many people looking at challenging Sen. Blanche Lincoln that it’s hard to keep them all straight. I’ve included links to their websites or where they’ve been mentioned in the media so that you won’t think I’m crazy for listing all these random names. Check out the full list and marvel at its astonishing length.

And I’ve been adding to the lists from last week over the last several days as new information trickles in. Take a look and let me know who we’re missing.

Arkansas Constitutional Officers

Arkansas Senate Races

Arkansas House Races

Lincoln: ‘Cap and Trade This’

By David Kinkade - August 6, 2009 9:32 am

Over at Roby Brock’s Talk Business blog, he notes that Sen. Blanche Lincoln announced she would oppose the House-passed “cap and trade” climate change legislation when it comes before the Senate. Uh, what the hell, did I just completely miss this? That seems like kind of big news, I guess, but I’m known for missing things. Anyway, Lincoln’s full statement is at the jump.

While we’re on the climate change beat, be sure to check out the results from Roby’s latest polling excursion, which suggests that Lincoln, along with Representatives Marion Berry (D), John Boozman (R) and Mike Ross (D), are on relatively safe ground with their constituents in opposing the cap and trade bill.

But why stop there? If we’re gonna bash the climate change crowd, we might as well make it a trifecta and head on over to the City Wire to read Michael Tilley’s fun rant against environmental fundamentalism and propaganda, stemming from a recent family tour of Chicago museums.

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A Stray Thought On Blanche Lincoln’s Money

By David Kinkade - July 20, 2009 8:57 pm

Regular readers of this blog know all too well my unhealthy obsession with campaign money matters, especially as they relate to the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Arkansas.

Now here’s retired Army Col. Conrad Reynolds, who announced Monday he is running as a Republican to challenge Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, telling the AP he intends to raise $500,000 by the end of the year.

Let’s run a little thought experiment here. Lincoln has raised an average of about $500,000 each month this year, for a total of about $3 million to date. If she were to continue raising money at that rate for the next 16 months—not even speeding up her pace, just staying steady at the pace she’s kept up to date—she could conceivably raise $11 MILLION for the whole race.

I’m not saying she WILL raise that much money—only that there’s a conceivable pathway to such numbers.

I’m also not saying that the Republican challenger will need to match her dollar for dollar to be competitive. But he’ll still need a lot. The question is, do any of the Republican hopefuls really grasp how much money they’re going to need to do this?

$11 million? I don’t even know how you would spend that much money on a race in Arkansas, do you? I suppose you could if you were to pay your campaign staff salaries so big they would make Ernie Passailaigue blush.

I’m just kidding, of course. I can’t even imagine a salary number so big that it would make Ernie Passailaigue blush.