The Arkansas Project

Maybe We Should Start Doing This Again

By David Kinkade - February 22, 2010 10:25 am

Well look who's back. (Photo credit CBS)

Believe me, team, should you ever dare to start up a blog and then take some time away from it, boy howdy, will you ever hear about it.

As a result of my hiatus these last couple of weeks, I’ve received a steady stream of reader e-mails, telephone calls and personal confrontations filled with complaints, insults, nagging and threats. But enough about Arkansas Project Girlfriend….

So maybe we’ll start ramping up again this week, ever so slowly, so as not to hurt ourselves. Let’s start with a) a new photo of that Arkansas chick who won CBS’ “Survivor” a few weeks ago (the “TV Guide” page where I found that photo says it’s her, but if so she looks really different from the earlier shots) and b) some long-delayed updates to our candidate lists. Quite a few changes to the First, Second and Third District congressional races, among others. (Let me know what updates we’re missing on the state legislative races front.)

The good news is that over the next couple of weeks we’ll start to get a much firmer sense of what all of these primary races will look like, since candidate filing starts March 1 and wraps up March 8. Which Senate candidates will wake up and face reality, once they’re faced with actually having to write a check for $12,500? (*cough*Curtis Coleman!*cough*Conrad Reynolds!*ahem*) I can’t wait to find out!

And among the things I missed last week…seriously, a “TWITTERVIEW” with Sen. Blanche Lincoln? My friends, we have now arrived at the absolutely stupidest possible confluence between the worlds of social media and politics. Alas.

Oh, Yeah, John Boozman’s Getting In, Too (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - January 29, 2010 7:05 am

Photo courtesy of Arkansas Project reader Mike, who has a thing for both Boozman and impossibly leggy chicks posing in uncomfortable stances.

After a week-long tease that he was considering getting into the Arkansas GOP Senate primary for a chance to challenge embattled U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Rep. John Boozman’s getting in, someone who would probably know tells me.

Of course, they’re telling everyone they can find, so it’s hardly exclusive. You might think they’d just issue a press release instead of offering a steady stream of breathless “sources say/you didn’t hear this from me” messages to everyone in the world, one by one, which appears to be the strategy.

As the lone Republican in the state’s Congressional delegation, Boozman will emerge as a strong candidate given his regional strength in Northwest Arkansas, proven fundraising ability, and dear God does anyone even bother reading these pat “impact” analyses at this point when the impacts are mostly obvious—I mean, you’re probably not even reading this sentence anymore, and if you are the question is, why, because it’s not like there’s going to be anything in this graf that you haven’t read before or even thought up yourself, right?

Boozman’s always struck me as a nice fellow but he has the charisma of an elbow. The End.

Oh, no, wait, one more thing: Jim Lindsey! Might run! OK, now really The End.

UPDATE: In a news release issued today, Boozman says to stay tuned till February 6, when he’ll have an “important announcement” about his political future. Golly, I wonder what it could be?

Robbie Wills Would Like to Be Your Congressperson Now

By David Kinkade - January 27, 2010 2:45 pm

Arkansas Rep. Robbie “Robert” Wills, the supreme leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives, announced today that he’s jumping in to the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder in Congress.

Wills is the second Democrat to announce for the seat—state Sen. Joyce Elliott said last week that she’s running for the Second District seat as well. Three Republicans — Tim Griffin, David Meeks and Scott Wallace — are slugging it out in a primary on the GOP side, and by all accounts the Democratic field is only expected to grow.

Word on the street is that Wills is looking at recent successful campaigns for ways to distinguish himself as the front runner. In fact, he’s been closely studying the Massachussetts Senate race last week for tips on how Republican Scott Brown pulled a shocker upset over Democrat Martha Coakley, and doing everything he can to replicate the Brown playbook:

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Shocker: Rep. Marion Berry Bows Out! (Updated)

By David Kinkade - January 24, 2010 5:22 pm

Berry: Gotta go

Rumors of Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry’s possible retirement from his First District Congressional seat — fueled by a radio interview with KUAR’s Ron Breeding last week in which Berry hedged on the question of whether he was running again — are proving to have been on the mark. Berry’s retirement announcement is pending, and may come as early as Sunday evening.

(UPDATE: Looks like I was a little behind the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who says the Berry announcement will come tomorrow. Roby Brock at Talk Business has also been working the story.)

On the Republican side, Jonesboro radio man Rick Crawford announced his bid last summer. Meanwhile, The Tolbert Report noted an effort afoot to draft GOP state Rep. Davy Carter to run for the seat. Get ready for an avalanche of Democrats to announce their interest in running for the seat in the coming hours and days.

Makes this a great time to take another look at AP Capitol reporter Andrew Demillo’s weekend assessment that “uncertainty reigns in Arkansas 2010 races.” Good point, Andrew Demillo!

UPDATE: Done deal. Full statement at jump.

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TBQ Poll: Dear Heavens, Does It Ever Suck to Be Blanche Lincoln

By David Kinkade - January 20, 2010 12:36 pm

Roby Brock’s Talk Business Quarterly is out with the latest numbers on embattled Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln, and if you were thinking that Lincoln’s sucky poll numbers had surely bottomed out, well, that just goes to show what you know, because it just keeps getting worse. Fifty-seven percent of Arkansans hold a “strongly unfavorable” or “somewhat unfavorable” view of the state’s senior senator.

Do you think it has anything to do with her support for that reeking turd of a health care bill? No, it couldn’t be that, because that’s just insanely popular, right? Quick, we need someone to explain why that reeking turd of a health care bill is actually a net plus for Democrats, in spite of all evidence to the contrary. Over to you, Blake Rutherford!

And another thing: Am I the only one who finds it strange that TBQ continues to use GOP political strategist Clint Reed to craft these polls, when he’s consulting for the campaign for Republican state Sen. Gilbert Baker — who’s a strong contender to be Lincoln’s challenger in November? Just askin’.

(UPDATE: Roby Brock called to let me know that he typically discloses Reed’s affiliation with the Baker campaign, as well as his Democratic contributor Robert McClarty’s affiliation with that of Attorney General Dustin McDaniel—but that he’d neglected to do so in this case. He has updated his blog post with the disclosures.)

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David Sanders to Announce for House Race in District 31

By David Kinkade - January 12, 2010 12:26 pm

Former Arkansas News Bureau columnist David Sanders, a veteran of Arkansas politics and media, will announce his campaign for District 23 31 in the state House of Representatives at noon Wednesday at the Arkansas Capitol. (Sanders began flirting with the notion of running a few weeks ago, as noted by The Arkansas Times, when the U.S. Senate candidate he’d signed up to work with withdrew from the race citing health concerns.)

The conservative Sanders will run as a Republican, of course, setting him up for a primary challenge against John Parke, who’s already announced his intention to the seek the seat. Three Democrats have also said they’ll vie for the seat, which is being vacated by GOP Rep. Dan Greenberg.

Here Are Some Things That Are Going On

By David Kinkade - January 8, 2010 12:57 pm

Man, is it ever cold outside….

(How cold is it, Dave?).

It’s so cold, I went to check the reading on the porch thermometer and I thought I was looking at Blanche Lincoln’s approval ratings! (Heyy-OOOOH!)

Anyway, here’s some political stuff that’s been going down this week that I wanted to note. Maybe you saw some of this scattered around the Arkansas blogosphere the last few days, or maybe you missed it, what the hell do I care what you do with your time:

• Former state Sen. Jim Holt announced that he would indeed enter the GOP primary in the U.S. Senate race to challenge the embattled Lincoln. He even filed paperwork and everything. The Washington Post says it’s one of the top 10 primary races in the country, but they also once ranked The Arkansas Project as a “Top Political Blog,” so who cares what those hacks say.
• GOP state Rep. Mark Martin says he will indeed make a run for secretary of state. Several Democrats have announced for the seat already.
• Republican Mark Darr made his candidacy for lieutenant governor official, and GOP Rep. Roy Ragland said he might just maybe enter the race, too, maybe.

And on Sunday, you’ll want to be sure you’re sitting by your wireless radio at 8 a.m., when I’ll be sitting in as the time filler special guest on Arkansas Sunday Edition with Blake Rutherford of Blake’s Think Tank, on 103.7 The Buzz in Little Rock. I know what you’re thinking: How on earth did Blake land the coveted 7-9 a.m. Sunday morning radio slot? I don’t know, man, he’s just got way more pull than we do.

We’ll probably be blathering on about politics, naturally, and, oh, I don’t know, how much Blake loved “Avatar,” probably. Christ, what a f**kin’ nightmare it will be.

Jimmy Bryant Eyes Secretary of State Bid

By David Kinkade - December 22, 2009 8:54 am

Republican Jimmy Bryant, a justice of the peace on the Faulkner County Quorum Court, tells Joe Lamb of the Log Cabin Democrat newspaper that he may run for secretary of state in 2010. Republican Rep. Mark Martin is also considering the race, and Democrats Mark Wilcox, Doris Tate and Pat O’Brien have all stated their intention to run. More on how the races for state constitutional offices are shaping up over here.

Gary Campbell Plans Run for District 64 House Seat

By David Kinkade - December 17, 2009 1:11 pm

Republican Gary Campbell of Fort Smith is spreading the word that he’s planning a run for Arkansas House of Representatives in District 64. The seat is currently held by GOP first-termer Stephanie Malone, setting us up for another primary race.

Campbell’s full news release at jump.

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Reed’s In

By David Kinkade - December 10, 2009 6:38 pm

Reed

Former Arkansas Farm Bureau chieftain Stanley Reed says he’ll enter the GOP primary field in the 2010 U.S. Senate race. Once you’re finished digesting that, feast on the fact that Arkansas News Bureau columnist David Sanders will serve as his campaign manager.

Wondering: Will Reed have to declare Sanders’ column that ran one day ago, in newspapers throughout the state, critiquing the rest of the GOP field, as an in-kind contribution? Memo to John Brummett: Get on this! Easy Sunday column!

Premature Evaluation: Or, Why Internet Polls Aren’t Worth the Paper They Aren’t Even Printed On

By Dan Greenberg - December 1, 2009 9:01 am

As a State Senate candidate, I’ve recently been the subject of a couple of “Internet polls,” in which website visitors are asked to vote for rival candidates. Even to discuss an Internet poll probably grants it too much importance, because there is no relation between actual voter behavior and an Internet poll.

After all, these were polls in which people from outside my district and minors could vote; perhaps more relevantly, someone technologically sophisticated types (which excludes me) might be able to vote multiple times from the same computer — not exactly a scientific gauge of public opinion.

Let’s look more closely at one of these polls. About a month ago, Whit Jones, proprietor of the insidesaline.com news site, polled his readers about the 2010 Senate race in District 22, which included me, my GOP primary opponent Jeremy Hutchinson and Democratic Rep. Dawn Creekmore. When I heard about this poll, I decided to vote once and then focus on more important things in my life: that is, everything else in the universe.

Regrettably, a supporter of mine soon brought to my attention that Hutchinson was accusing me of “robo-voting” in the poll. (Hutchinson made the same accusation in the previous Internet poll that he and I were subjected to; I assume “robo-voting” has something to do with using a computer program that repeatedly casts votes.) I immediately checked the poll, looking forward to an incredibly lopsided vote total in my favor.

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Vic Snyder Has Terrible Poll Numbers, Also

By David Kinkade - November 16, 2009 9:15 am

Say, you know who’s breathing a sigh of relief this morning? Sen. Blanche Lincoln — because for once people will be talking about terrible poll numbers that aren’t hers.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm out of North Carolina, reports that a recent survey of Arkansas’ second Congressional district shows only 42 percent of voters approving of Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder’s performance, with 46 percent disapproving.

Snyder polls strongly with Dems, but he’s hurting amongst Republican and independent voters. The pollsters characterize the 2010 race for this seat as a “toss-up” at this time.

A lot of Snyder’s issues can probably be traced to overall feelings about his party. 54% of voters in the district disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, 52% disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance, and 50% express the feeling that Congressional Democrats are too liberal. Additionally 55% of voters say they’re opposed to the health care bill the House passed last week with Snyder’s support, including 91% of Republicans and 67% of independents. Snyder seems to be bearing the brunt of a lot of animosity toward national Democrats in his district.

PPP has more over here (with link to PDF file with full results). The survey also shows Snyder slightly leading each of his potential GOP opponents, Tim Griffin, David Meeks and Scott Wallace. All are within the margin of error.

Candidates! Look At Your Calendars!

By David Kinkade - November 5, 2009 11:15 am

If you’re one of the many, many Republican primary candidates in the U.S. Senate race shaping up here in Arkansas, most of whose campaigns are under-performing financially, here’s a friendly reminder that campaign fundraising often gets pretty tough around the holidays.

Like, see that week for Thanksgiving on your calendar? Yeah, you can probably pretty much mark that one off. You won’t be raising any significant scratch in that week.

OK, now flip ahead to December and cross off the last two weeks of that month, more or less.

That leaves you with about four or maybe five weeks to raise money for your campaign. Which would be a smart thing to do, given the numbers that many of the contenders posted at the end of the 2009 third quarter. (Take a closer look at that chart—based on the numbers some of these guys are reporting, most of those guys couldn’t even afford the $10,000 fee to file for office.)

Just sayin’. A campaign war chest is a handy thing to have, even if it means you have to skip out on participating in some dumbass “straw poll,” which is apparently poised to be the hot pointless political gimmick of campaign season 2010.

J.R. Dallas to Seek House District 63 Seat

By David Kinkade - October 24, 2009 2:52 pm

J.R. Dallas of Fort Smith, former head of the Arkansas Air National Guard 188th Fighter Wing, will announce Monday that he’s running for the Arkansas House of Representatives seat representing District 63, according to the City Wire in Fort Smith. Dallas will run as a Republican, so he’ll face Arkansas Sen. Denny Altes, who’s also running for the seat, in a primary.

The seat is currently held by Republican Rep. Frank Glidewell, who is term-limited and is running for the Arkansas Senate seat representing District 13.

Our ever-growing list of 2010 House races is over here.

Now Drew Pritt Is Running for U.S. Senate, Too

By David Kinkade - October 24, 2009 2:42 pm

Perennial Democratic candidate Drew Pritt sends along word that he, too, will join the ever-expanding universe of Arkansas people who think that Sen. Blanche Lincoln must be replaced. Full text of Pritt’s news release is at the jump.

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Senator Gilbert Baker Announces the Hiring of Former Huckabee for President National Press Secretary Alice Stewart

By David Kinkade - October 21, 2009 5:53 pm

Arkansas Sen. Gilbert Baker, frontrunner in the 2010 GOP primary race to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, announces today that he’s hired former Mike Huckabee spokeswoman Alice Stewart as his campaign mouthpiece.

It’s all in a news release with a comically long headline, which I liked so much I pasted it in as the title for this post. She’ll be serving as deputy campaign manager and communications director. Full statement at jump.

Alice was last seen here on the Arkansas Project when she was in the running for the executive directorship of the Republican Party of Arkansas. She also has a blog, which updates even less frequently than this one, if you can believe such a thing.

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2010 Senate Money Race: Who Can We Send To the Deadpool?

By David Kinkade - October 15, 2009 2:23 pm

The Tolbert Report is rounding up some of the financial reports from various Arkansas candidates for U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, so to supplement Jason’s efforts I’ve created this handy graph of the financial performance of several of the Senate candidates.

So who will survive for another quarter, and which of these walking wounded campaigns should we be shuffling off to the deadpool? Here’s what this graph tells us:

• If you’re over on the left side of the graph, your fundraising efforts are showing some vigor, and you should keep doing what you’re doing!
• If you’re grouped in the middle of the pack there (and/or heavily dependent upon personal loans to your own campaign), ehhhh, I don’t know, man, you either need to step it up or start planning a graceful exit. Y’know, like maybe a quiet departure from the race around the holidays, when no one’s really paying that much attention. The first person to proclaim that “This campaign is about the message, not the money” will automatically be shifted to the deadpool. Trust me, because I’ve tried that and it doesn’t work.
• If you’re one of those guys over there on the far right side of the graph, please note that I have so little confidence in your chances that I haven’t even bothered to find your photo to cut your head out. I can’t even muster the energy to make funny pictures of you. Think about that for a little bit.

Here’s the full list of announced/considering/rumored Senate candidates for 2010. I look forward to making it shorter soon, so let’s get moving on some of those aforementioned graceful exits.

Keith Crass to Run for Arkansas House District 24 Seat

By David Kinkade - October 14, 2009 10:54 am

Keith Crass of Hot Springs, a certified public accountant, announces today that he’ll run for the Arkansas House of Representatives seat in District 24 as a Republican. The seat is currently held by Rep. Rick Saunders, who is term-limited. Full release from Crass at the jump.

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Reynolds a Nimrod, Says Jonesboro Newsman

By David Kinkade - October 7, 2009 8:35 am

Conrad E. Reynolds

Fun media goof-up story from Roll Call today about one of Arkansas’ many GOP Senate hopefuls and the news director of the NPR outlet at Arkansas State University.

Candidate Conrad E. Reynolds has been making quite a bit of noise lately with a steady stream of news releases and press statements, and news director Greg Chance at ASU’s public radio station has apparently had enough:

Army Col. Conrad Reynolds is one of several Republicans vying to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for Arkansas’ Senate seat in 2010. Reynolds’ campaign issued a press release last week blasting Lincoln for a vote, and among those who received it was Greg Chance, the news director of an NPR affiliate based at Arkansas State University. From Roll Call, via Newsbusters:

Army Col. Conrad Reynolds is one of several Republicans vying to take on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for Arkansas’ Senate seat in 2010. Reynolds’ campaign issued a press release last week blasting Lincoln for a vote, and among those who received it was Greg Chance, the news director of an NPR affiliate based at Arkansas State University.

It seems Chance attempted to forward the e-mail to Katie Laning Niebaum, Lincoln’s Washington-based communications director. In his forward, which HOH obtained, Chance mocked the press release and even the campaign’s logo, which features the Army colonel insignia.

“There was another one from this nimrod earlier today which I lost. I just love his logo. That ought to go over really well with the enlisted people. (ha ha),” he writes.

One problem: Chance must have hit the “reply” button instead, because his message went straight to Kenneth Ryan James, the campaign’s spokesman.

Please note the particularly telling detail in the story, which is that Chance evidently thought he was communicating directly with Lincoln’s press secretary. Cozy. (Roll Call is subscription only, so link goes to Newsbusters write-up of the exchange.)

I requested a copy of the e-mail from Reynolds spokesman, K. Ryan James, and a screenshot is posted at the jump. The Reynolds campaign’s full response is available at his site.

While we’re on the Reynolds beat, congrats to the candidate and his wife on the birth of their new son yesterday.

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Ken Cowling, Paul White Join State Senate Races

By David Kinkade - October 5, 2009 8:46 am

Two more updates in our running lists of 2010 campaigns:

Former state Rep. Ken Cowling, a Democrat, is announcing he’ll run for the District 21 Senate seat in southwest Arkansas, which is being vacated by term-limited Democratic Sen. Barbara Horn. House Majority Leader Steve Harrelson is also running for the seat.

Meanwhile, Paul White of Mountain View, a Republican, has announced he’ll run for the District 10 seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Paul Miller, who is term-limited. A couple of Democrats have also expressed interest in the seat.

Full text of both announcements is at the jump. For more on 2010 Arkansas races, click here.

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