The Arkansas Project

Robbie Wills Would Like to Be Your Congressperson Now

By David Kinkade - January 27, 2010 2:45 pm

Arkansas Rep. Robbie “Robert” Wills, the supreme leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives, announced today that he’s jumping in to the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder in Congress.

Wills is the second Democrat to announce for the seat—state Sen. Joyce Elliott said last week that she’s running for the Second District seat as well. Three Republicans — Tim Griffin, David Meeks and Scott Wallace — are slugging it out in a primary on the GOP side, and by all accounts the Democratic field is only expected to grow.

Word on the street is that Wills is looking at recent successful campaigns for ways to distinguish himself as the front runner. In fact, he’s been closely studying the Massachussetts Senate race last week for tips on how Republican Scott Brown pulled a shocker upset over Democrat Martha Coakley, and doing everything he can to replicate the Brown playbook:

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Shocker: Rep. Marion Berry Bows Out! (Updated)

By David Kinkade - January 24, 2010 5:22 pm

Berry: Gotta go

Rumors of Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry’s possible retirement from his First District Congressional seat — fueled by a radio interview with KUAR’s Ron Breeding last week in which Berry hedged on the question of whether he was running again — are proving to have been on the mark. Berry’s retirement announcement is pending, and may come as early as Sunday evening.

(UPDATE: Looks like I was a little behind the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who says the Berry announcement will come tomorrow. Roby Brock at Talk Business has also been working the story.)

On the Republican side, Jonesboro radio man Rick Crawford announced his bid last summer. Meanwhile, The Tolbert Report noted an effort afoot to draft GOP state Rep. Davy Carter to run for the seat. Get ready for an avalanche of Democrats to announce their interest in running for the seat in the coming hours and days.

Makes this a great time to take another look at AP Capitol reporter Andrew Demillo’s weekend assessment that “uncertainty reigns in Arkansas 2010 races.” Good point, Andrew Demillo!

UPDATE: Done deal. Full statement at jump.

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Now Drew Pritt Is Running for U.S. Senate, Too

By David Kinkade - October 24, 2009 2:42 pm

Perennial Democratic candidate Drew Pritt sends along word that he, too, will join the ever-expanding universe of Arkansas people who think that Sen. Blanche Lincoln must be replaced. Full text of Pritt’s news release is at the jump.

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2010 Senate Money Race: Who Can We Send To the Deadpool?

By David Kinkade - October 15, 2009 2:23 pm

The Tolbert Report is rounding up some of the financial reports from various Arkansas candidates for U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, so to supplement Jason’s efforts I’ve created this handy graph of the financial performance of several of the Senate candidates.

So who will survive for another quarter, and which of these walking wounded campaigns should we be shuffling off to the deadpool? Here’s what this graph tells us:

• If you’re over on the left side of the graph, your fundraising efforts are showing some vigor, and you should keep doing what you’re doing!
• If you’re grouped in the middle of the pack there (and/or heavily dependent upon personal loans to your own campaign), ehhhh, I don’t know, man, you either need to step it up or start planning a graceful exit. Y’know, like maybe a quiet departure from the race around the holidays, when no one’s really paying that much attention. The first person to proclaim that “This campaign is about the message, not the money” will automatically be shifted to the deadpool. Trust me, because I’ve tried that and it doesn’t work.
• If you’re one of those guys over there on the far right side of the graph, please note that I have so little confidence in your chances that I haven’t even bothered to find your photo to cut your head out. I can’t even muster the energy to make funny pictures of you. Think about that for a little bit.

Here’s the full list of announced/considering/rumored Senate candidates for 2010. I look forward to making it shorter soon, so let’s get moving on some of those aforementioned graceful exits.

Jesse Boyce to Run for House District 49 Seat

By David Kinkade - September 3, 2009 9:16 am

Democrat Jesse Boyce, a Beebe businessman, sent word last evening that he’ll run for the Arkansas House of Representatives in District 49. The seat is currently held by Republican Rep. Jonathan Dismang, who is running for Arkansas Senate.

Republican Jeremy Gilliam is said to be eyeing the race, as well.

Boyce’s full release is at the jump. As always, here’s our running list of House candidates for 2010.

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Krystal Thrailkill Announces Run for House District 22

By David Kinkade - August 27, 2009 9:20 am

Krystal Thrailkill, a Democrat, announced this week that she’ll run for the Arkansas House of Representatives in District 22. The seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Bill Abernathy, who is term-limited. The full text of her release is below the jump.

For our running tally of who’s running for the House, click here. (Let me know if you see any names missing from the list—it’s a work in progress.)

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New Lincoln Poll Numbers Looking Ugly (Updated!)

By David Kinkade - August 26, 2009 10:34 am

Wait, what's she smiling about?

The latest numbers from Public Policy Polling’s recent survey of Arkansas are out today, and they ain’t pretty for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who’s commanding a tepid 36 percent approval rating in the state, with three potential GOP challengers—Sen. Gilbert Baker, Curtis Coleman and Tom Cotton—all within the margin of error in head-to-head match-ups. (Two of those dudes, Baker and Cotton, haven’t even announced they’ll be running at this point.)

Compounding the ugliness for Lincoln in today’s media mix is this sterling column from the Arkansas News Bureau’s David Sanders, who last week broke the news that Democratic state Sen. Bob Johnson was mulling a primary run against Lincoln. Sanders gets Johnson on the record talking about the whys and wherefores of his flirtation with higher office:

Johnson has concluded that part of Lincoln’s electoral troubles stem from the fact that she’s never become  an adored Arkansas politician, like many of her predecessors who served in the U.S. Senate.

“Going to Washington doesn’t mean you have to stop being who you are — that is part of the problem, which adds to the pretentious phony-isms we get out of D.C.,” he said. “People don’t like functionaries.”

But, Johnson also observes the obvious. Her situation, he said, has been made worse by the fact that voters have become openly hostile to Washington incumbents.

“Sometimes candidates just get into a death spiral – an inverted roll – and can’t pull out of it,” he said. According to Johnson, Lincoln is caught up in a much larger problem, and a lot of incumbent politicians are in her situation.

“Death spiral”? Yikes. Hey, maybe this news will encourage another 8 to 10 people to jump into the race.

Blogger Jason Tolbert has more over at The Tolbert Report, as does Max Brantley at the Arkansas Times. Meanwhile, youngblood blogger Zack “Nick” Stovall says “Bah!” to you and your tiresome polling numbers, thereby affecting an air of hardened political cynicism not typically found in someone who only started shaving last week.

UPDATE: Sanders comes back with a blog post about Sen. Gilbert Baker, whom he says will jump into the race by announcing the formation of an exploratory committee on September 1. That’s Tuesday of next week, as of this writing. We’ll see.  I hesitated to even point it up, so weary am I of Baker’s indecisive Hamlet routine on this question, so make of that what you will.

What’s Bob Johnson’s Angle?

By David Kinkade - August 22, 2009 11:36 am

Sen. Bob "Robert" Johnson

Arkansas News Bureau columnist David “J.” Sanders broke the news yesterday that Sen. Bob Johnson, Democrat from Bigelow, is considering a primary challenge to Sen. Blanche Lincoln. (Sanders floated the rumor on his blog over at AETN. That’s right: Sanders is blogging now. That means that, in addition to his twice-weekly column, monthly television show, Twitter feed and regular KARN radio appearances, he’s now able to annoy you entertain and inform you on an entirely new platform).

Johnson confirmed the rumor shortly thereafter, and he told reporter John Lyon that he’s a “Harry Truman Democrat” and made some statements that indicate he’d be running against the reigning Democratic majority in Washington. “Mr. Johnson must have decided the Republican primary is too crowded,” Lincoln’s campaign manager, Steve Patterson, wryly notes.

Now, Bob Johnson is a calculating man, so I’ve been trying to wrap my head around what his calculations might be. Lincoln commands an impressive fundraising apparatus, so he can’t compete on money; he admits as much in his interview with Lyon. He’s a more conservative Democrat than Lincoln, so he’ll run to her right. Is Lincoln weak among conservative-leaning rural Dems? Johnson also says that he’s received encouragement from current and former state legislators. Is that to suggest that Lincoln has unsteady relations with the state Democratic machine?

Or perhaps it’s all just a function of things like this. And things like this:

Anyway, I’ve added Johnson to our ever-lengthening list of 2010 Senate candidates.

Arkansas 2010 Congressional Races

By David Kinkade - August 11, 2009 10:39 am

This was intended to publish last week, but those bedeviling server woes held us up. So here’s our final entry in our listing of Arkansas political races for 2010, which lists who’s in (or exploring or considering or rumored) for the state’s four Congressional seats.

This one’s timely, as Roby Brock just released poll numbers a few days ago showing Arkansans are something less than enthusiastic about the job that Congress is doing. “Are we seeing an anti-incumbent sentiment in the making?” Roby asks, in the breathless rhetorical style that is more characteristic of The Arkansas Project than it is of his more sober and respectable publications. Well, are we? ARE WE? Answer: I do not know.

And as a reminder, here are our previously published lists, which are receiving regular updates as people drop on and off the radar screen:

U.S. Senate

Arkansas Constitutional Officers

Arkansas Senate Races

Arkansas House Races

Send along additions and corrections as you see fit.

Cultural Learnings of Democrat for Make Benefit Glorious Party of Republican (Updated!)

By Cory Allen Cox - July 21, 2009 2:04 pm

UPDATE: Lots of comments below with good discussion, and check out Blake Rutherford’s response over at Blake’s Think Tank, where the back and forth continues.

Arkansas political history is fascinating and instructive. It is also readily available if you wish to learn on your own. Arkansas politicos like to talk about the old times and how things once were. If you can get past the fact that 90 percent of the people with longevity in Arkansas politics are Democrats, then you can tap into a treasure trove of political experience.

Unfortunately, Arkansas Republicans who have had some political success disappear soon after they leave office. If they don’t get a TV show, they just disappear from the scene and are rarely heard from again. One would be hard pressed to visit with former Congressman John Paul Hammerschmidt or, for that matter, former Rep. Stephen Bright. But you can’t throw a rock in downtown Little Rock without hitting two former Democratic legislators in the head.

Fortunately, these Democrats are eager to relate stories of their glory days with intellectually curious young Republicans. Probably the first story these generous souls will share is how some influential Democrat helped them along in their career. They will tell you about how they were mentored and how they, in turn, mentored someone else. They’ll explain how Paul planted and Apollos watered, and soon the political seeds planted grew into actual office holding flowers.

Then you’ll probably hear two second-hand stories if you visit long enough. One is the story of Bill Clinton saying he didn’t need a party to win; all he needed was one supporter in each county. Then they’ll relate how Clinton staged his 1982 comeback based on that theory.

The other story is how a group of young hopefuls drank a bottle of wine one evening and plotted their futures, taking an oath to assist one another achieve their goals. The story will end that 20 years later, they had all reached the offices/positions/jobs they had plotted for and how many of today’s judges, reporters, bankers, congressmen, etc. were a part of this junta .

These stories illuminate what we lack as Republicans in Arkansas. On some level, we know these lessons, but don’t like to admit them.

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Roll Call: Ross a ‘Bulldog’ In Health Care Debate

By David Kinkade - July 20, 2009 9:32 am

Demcratic Rep. Mike Ross, who came in for qualified praise here last week for throwing the brakes on Obama health care bill in Congress, citing cost concerns, is the subject of this positive profile in Capitol Hill pub Roll Call:

Ross also is tapping into a growing frustration among rank-and-file Members.

“I think between the financial crisis, the auto bailout, the omnibus … the stimulus bill, the energy bill, I think it’s reached a point where not only the Blue Dogs are saying, ‘Let’s slow down here.’ The people back home want us to stop the spending, they want us to have time to read these bills, they want us to have time to debate and understand these bills, and they don’t see that happening.”

[Congressional] Leadership doesn’t yet to seem to get it, Ross said.

“I think they underestimated the Blue Dogs on this. They are dug in. They’re ‘bowed up.’ They’ve all gotten an earful back home.

“We’re more united than we’ve ever been, and so it’s not as easy as inviting one Member in after the next and finding out what their pet project is and helping them.”

Meanwhile, Ross tells The Hill that conservatives in Congress should not hold out hope that the Blue Dog Democrats will kneecap the health care reform effort. Prepare to be sorely disappointed. And prepare for me to have to take back those nice things I was saying about him last week, most likely.

Let’s All Raise A Glass To Mike Ross Now

By David Kinkade - July 17, 2009 3:08 pm

Rep. Mike Ross

It’s a lovely summer afternoon here in Little Rock, and the Arkansas Project finds itself suffused with the spirit of warm generosity, for the moment. It’s a strange and sickening feeling.

So let’s all raise a glass to Democratic Rep. Mike Ross, who rules the massive Fourth District of Arkansas with an iron hand, and who has been making waves this week in the health care reform debate.

Ross has been giving the Obama administration and the Democratic House leadership headaches, telling them he and his Blue Dog Democrat pals might just shut down that precious health care bill, see, unless some changes are made. (Arkansas News Bureau columnist John Brummett has a few bullets on what changes the Blue Dogs might like to see.)

A Congressional Budget Office report released Thursday warns of insanely high costs from the legislation. Ross tells the Wall Street Journal:

“We have to take steps to hold health-care costs to the rate of inflation, or we will never balance our federal budget again and health-insurance costs will continue to become less and less affordable for the American people,” said Arkansas Democratic Rep. Mike Ross. Mr. Ross is a leading member of the Blue Dogs, a moderate faction of the party’s caucus that counts more than 50 members and has a crucial say over whether health-care legislation will pass. Mr. Elmendorf’s comments, he said, “only underscore what the Blue Dogs have been saying all along.”

A friend points out that, if nothing else, Ross and the Blue Dogs are slowing down action on the bill and forcing people to take a closer look.

Will Ross et al. hold the line? We’ll see. If he should cave on this, I reserve the right to take this all back and heap opprobrium upon him. We’ll consider this qualified praise, for the time being.

Mike Fletcher To Run for State Senate Dist. 27 Seat

By David Kinkade - July 17, 2009 9:42 am

Democrat Mike Fletcher, an Arkansas State Police commander in Hot Springs, announces he will run for the state Senate in District 27. The seat is currently held by Democratic Sen. Steve Faris, who is term-limited. Full release at jump.

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Mr. McDaniel Goes to Washington

By David Kinkade - July 16, 2009 4:35 pm

Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel

Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel was on Capitol Hill today testifying on behalf of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor in her Senate confirmation hearings. The Washington Post has a full transcript here for your reading pleasure.

Last week, faithless Arkansas Project contributor Cory Cox considered the political ramifications of McDaniel’s testifying for Sotomayor.

And by the way, I checked with the AG’s office about funding for this little venture and am told McDaniel paid for the trip from his campaign funds.

UPDATE: Sen. Mark Pryor says he’ll likely support Sotomayor. Was there a question about this? OK, man, whatever, do what you want, it’s your life.

McDaniel To Testify for Sotomayor. Why?

By Cory Allen Cox - July 10, 2009 7:35 am

Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel is going to testify on behalf of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor? Huh? For the life of me, I can’t figure out why McDaniel would borrow this trouble.

Now, this isn’t going to make or break a campaign when McDaniel runs for governor, but it sure isn’t going to help and it there is no point in it.

The Democrats have a super majority in the Senate. There is no way McDaniel’s testimony is going to sway any senator, especially the odd Democrat who may have wandered away from the fold against the command of the President and Harry Reid. No offense to McDaniel, but he’s doesn’t have the stroke to matter much in D.C.

Either McDaniel knows this or he doesn’t. If he knows it, then his intention has nothing to do with the confirmation and has everything to do with trying to elevate his status to help in his future campaign for governor.

If he doesn’t know that he doesn’t have the stroke to matter, then he probably doesn’t have the political acumen to become governor. His testimony is totally unnecessary. It opens him up to criticism. The only up side I see is that it buys him political capital with the White House. But Obama isn’t exactly a popular figure in Arkansas.

So why would McDaniel ignore the example of Gov. Beebe and do anything to rock the boat? He claims he is speaking out for Sotomayor because she stands for the police; to which I say, what?
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John Vines to Run For House District 25 Seat

By David Kinkade - May 16, 2009 5:23 pm

Hot Springs attorney John Vines, a Democrat, will run for the Arkansas House of Representatives in District 25, reports Blake’s Think Tank. The seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Gene Shelby, who is said to be planning a run for the Senate in District 19.

Barth Rakes In $64K for State Senate Race

By David Kinkade - April 16, 2009 9:27 am

This news release rolled in via e-mail yesterday while I was otherwise occupied with all that other stuff: Hendrix College poli sci prof Jay Barth, a Democrat, pulled down more than $64,000 in the first quarter in his campaign to be the next Arkansas state senator from District 34. He’s already got a campaign website up and running.

The seat is currently held by Sen. Tracy Steele, also a Democrat, who is term-limited.

The 2010 Polling Begins?

By David Kinkade - March 20, 2009 4:21 pm

Too early for 2010 polling? Oh, dear heavens no, my friend.

I just took a call off my desk phone in which a recorded voice of some nice man invited me to field a few questions. The survey was comprised of nine questions focused on Sen. Blanche Lincoln, potential GOP challengers Gilbert Baker and Tim Griffin, some other Arkansas Democratic officials, and, believe it or not, Rush Limbaugh. All the questions are listed at the jump.

Then there were the usual demographic questions about race, gender, etc. In case you were wondering, I’m a 63-year-old black Democratic woman.

I was taking notes quickly, so the transcriptions won’t be 100 percent precise, but this gets at the substance of the questions. I don’t recall hearing the nice man say who was running this survey — I don’t believe he said.

But I assume, since those Rush Limbaugh questions are in there, it’s probably one of those thoroughly inept Washington D.C. organizations like the Democratic National Committee or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. I don’t think the Lincoln campaign people would waste a perfectly good question on such a perfectly asinine matter.

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Stuff From Around Arkansas, March 19

By David Kinkade - March 19, 2009 9:44 am

This blog has never been known for its good taste, but I may be pushing my luck with this one.

Inside the Hollowed, Weathered Cabinet: OK, everyone raise your hand if you believe, as does John Brummett, that a cabalistic Clintonite machine in Arkansas is advancing young Democratic candidates to challenge the damnable apostate Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Yeah, that’s what I thought. Me, neither. (Blake’s Think Tank)

The Hard Stuff: Proposal to hike taxes on “alcopop” drinks beloved by girls and, I don’t know, John Brummett, probably, fails in committee. Blogger Zack Stovall’s got some questions. (Unfamous First Words)

Annals of Gun Nuttery Update: Blogger John Anderson at the Arkansas Concealed Carry Association gives thumbs up to Democratic Rep. Mike Ross for work in opposing federal ‘assault weapons’ ban. (ARCCA Blog)

Baker Watch: Roby Brock gets reaction from Sen. Gilbert Baker to the “Draft Gilbert Baker for Senate” boomlet. (Political Buzz blog)

Mother’s Milk: Good news, moms!: Arkansas Senate OKs breastfeeding bill. Bad news: They’ll probably try to tax that milk, too. Zing! (AP)

Stuff From Around Arkansas, March 12

By David Kinkade - March 12, 2009 11:26 am

Wrong Number: If you came here looking for details on the Arkansas lottery bill, boy, did you ever come to the wrong place. You meant to stop by Roby Brock’s blog. I’ll wait here while you go check that out. (Talk Business)

Travel Voucher: A spiffy proposal from GOP Rep. Ann Clemmer would cut down on Arkansas legislators’ abuse of travel reimbursements, so of course it has to be voted down thunderously. (AP)

Sad Tolbert: So much for the Jason Tolbert Transparency Act, ha ha loser. (Blake’s Think Tank)

Halter Top: Arkansas’ own Bill Halter is the new King of the Lieutenant Governors, hooray! (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette)

Cuba Libre: Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Rep. Marion Berry want to open up relations with Cuba. Hmm, I think I can get behind this. Yes. Thumbs up. (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette)

2 Fast 2 Furious: Rep. Dan Greenberg has some new bill dealing with drag racing, and as he explains to FOX 16, “If my wife and I have two cars and we’re at the bookstore and I say ‘I bet I get home before you do’, that’s not the sort of thing that we’re seeking to regulate.” Why do I get the feeling he didn’t just pull that example out of the air? I think we just got a glimpse of what constitutes “date night” for the Greenbergs. (FOX 16)