Jim Holt Will Take Your Money Now (Updated!)

Jim Holt

Jim Holt

Not a lot of political news this holiday week, but readers have been opening up some conversation on the potential impact of former state Sen. Jim Holt’s entry into the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, so let’s take note of that development.

Holt’s been flirting with the idea of getting in to the race for months, and he takes an additional step toward the race tonight with a pair of fundraisers in Rogers in Northwest Arkansas.

Any Arkansas Project readers who may happen to be in the neighborhood and want to shoot us a report or a note in the comments section, feel free to do so. Those who want to speculate on The Holt Effect and what it all means, feel free to start duking it out below.

In other Senate primary news, Republican Conrad E. Reynolds announces today that Joe “The Plumber” Wurzelbacher will join him in Arkansas in January for a three-day tour of the state, perhaps the surest sign to date that Reynolds’ underfunded campaign needs to be put out of its misery.

UPDATE: Roby Brock’s Political Buzz blog weighs in with a report on some preliminary numbers, suggesting 75-80 attendees at Holt’s $100 fundraiser and 11 paid attendees at the $1,000 event. Roby also notes that Holt has almost certainly crossed the $5,000 threshold that would require him to file with the Federal Election Commission.

And Mark Moore of the Arkansas Watch blog, who was on the scene for one of the events, offers some additional perspective.

Jimmy Bryant Eyes Secretary of State Bid

Republican Jimmy Bryant, a justice of the peace on the Faulkner County Quorum Court, tells Joe Lamb of the Log Cabin Democrat newspaper that he may run for secretary of state in 2010. Republican Rep. Mark Martin is also considering the race, and Democrats Mark Wilcox, Doris Tate and Pat O’Brien have all stated their intention to run. More on how the races for state constitutional offices are shaping up over here.

This Arkansas Girl Won ‘Survivor’ (Updated!)

Natalie White

****UPDATE: I’m keeping this post at the top for a couple of days because the photos are so awesome. New stuff will show up underneath. ****

Come, let us dispense with tiresome talk of the 2010 Senate race (“Will Jim Holt get in? When will Jim Holt get in? Is Jim Holt in yet? Has anyone talked to Jim Holt?” “Jim Holt…call me!” “Jim! Holt!”) and the dreary back and forth over Obamacare to focus on the things that matter most to the Arkansas Project readership.

And so here is Natalie White, a 26-year-old pharmaceutical sales rep from Van Buren, who took home the $1 million dollar prize on the CBS reality show “Survivor,” which means she is now better funded than all of the candidates in the GOP Senate primary. Ha ha! Zing! See how I brought it back around there?

More Natalie at the jump.

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Reed’s Out

Remember how last week we all went into a feeding frenzy over the entry of former Arkansas Farm Bureau chief Stanley Reed into the GOP primary for U.S. Senate? Remember? That was a real time, wasn’t it? Yeah, well, about that…never mind.

A Stiff Drink: Greenberg, Kerr at Arkansas Tea Party

Here is a clip from last Saturday’s Tea Party, which was held in Little Rock’s Doubletree Hotel; it’s me and state Rep. Allen Kerr. A friend of mine came up to me after my talk and said: “Dan, that was the most interesting speech on federalism I have ever heard!” That is probably not a high bar, but I hope you enjoy it.

Video courtesy Kenneth Wallis of Little Rock Immigration Examiner. (Several other videos available at that link.)

Gary Campbell Plans Run for District 64 House Seat

Republican Gary Campbell of Fort Smith is spreading the word that he’s planning a run for Arkansas House of Representatives in District 64. The seat is currently held by GOP first-termer Stephanie Malone, setting us up for another primary race.

Campbell’s full news release at jump.

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Amateur Hour for Arkansas GOP

It’s amateur hour for the Republican Party of Arkansas, which has cranked up their moral dudgeon to “high” in response to a throw-away comment from the state Democrats’ executive director in a recent news story.

Here’s the background: On Tuesday, former GOP Rep. Michael Lamoureux won a special election to be the next state senator for District 4. Asked for response, state Democrats offered this to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette’s Mike Wickline :

Mariah Hatta, executive director of the state Democratic Party, said she hopes Lamoureux “will work across party lines for the good of our people and avoid the hyper-partisanship cult of Republican legislators, mostly in the House, who would like to make the Capitol in Little Rock more like the one in Washington.”

That “cult” bit didn’t go down too well with GOP chair Doyle Webb and House  minority leader Bryan King, who issued hyperventilating statements declaring, in effect, “We are not a cult.”

Jonestown 1978

OK, let’s review some elementary political communication tactics, such as, when someone makes a charge against you, you DON”T REPEAT THE CHARGE. Why? Because it simply reinforces the idea in people’s minds, rather than refuting it.  Here, let’s let Ryan Sager explain how that works:

People use “perceived familiarity” with a supposed “fact” as a mental shortcut to judge its truth. Thus, if they hear “X isn’t true,” over time they simply remember “X.” So, for instance, if you’re the Democrats during the health care debate, you don’t want to get stuck repeating, “There are no death panels.” What people remember from that is, “Man, there’s sure a lot of controversy over these ‘death panels’ I hear so much about.”

Well put, Ryan Sager! So when people hear Republicans leaders protest, “We are not a cult!”, they don’t share the deep sense of offense. They’re more likely to simply remember the nouns: “GOP=Cult.” (If you’re running for office in the coming year, feel free to clip ‘n’ save this little lesson. It may come in handy when you have to run a little campaign damage control of your own.)

Now, Hatta’s comment was dumb — over-the-top and needlessly provocative-for-the-sake-of-being-provocative. But the Republican response, purposely elevating the throw-away smear buried in a newspaper story into a Big Issue, is worse, because they allowed themselves to be provoked, to no useful end.

It may be too much to ask the state’s GOP leaders to think like professional communication strategists. But at the very least, they might refrain from embarrassing themselves with tactics that are self-defeating and monumentally retarded.

UPDATE: No sooner do I hit “publish” on this piece than a news release arrives from GOP Senate candidate Conrad Reynolds, taking a breather from not raising money for his campaign, pushing the same goddamn lines. This. This is the hill they’ve chosen to stand and fight upon. Attention Democrats: Give Mariah Hatta a fat bonus! Full Reynolds statement at jump.

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Reed’s In

Reed

Reed

Former Arkansas Farm Bureau chieftain Stanley Reed says he’ll enter the GOP primary field in the 2010 U.S. Senate race. Once you’re finished digesting that, feast on the fact that Arkansas News Bureau columnist David Sanders will serve as his campaign manager.

Wondering: Will Reed have to declare Sanders’ column that ran one day ago, in newspapers throughout the state, critiquing the rest of the GOP field, as an in-kind contribution? Memo to John Brummett: Get on this! Easy Sunday column!

Campaign Watchers! More 2010 Campaign Updates!

Hey, things may be a little slow over here of late, but rest assured that our running lists of potential and announced 2010 Arkansas candidates are being updated regularly.

The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette’s Mike Wickline runs with a report today on some races to watch (subscription only link), which included a couple of names we didn’t have yet, so I’ve added them to the lists in the appropriate places.

In case you missed it last week, The Tolbert Report noted that GOP Rep. Mark Martin is eyeing a race for secretary of state. Republicans have been slow to field candidates for the state constitutional offices, since everyone thinks they should be the one to replace Sen. Blanche Lincoln, so Martin’s entry to the secretary of state race should be a welcome one.

And don’t forget that Tuesday brings a special election in Arkansas Senate District 4, where former GOP Rep. Michael Lamoureux faces Democrat John Burnett and Independent Tachany Evans to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Sharon Trusty. Voting is already under way. (UPDATE: Lamoureux won the race handily.)

Do check out the list and let us know who’s missing.

Straw Wars: Baker For the Win

Gil "Bert" BakerThe Republican Party of Arkansas hosted its straw poll for the 2010 Senate race today, with seven of the announced candidates participating. And in a way, I guess you could say that all of these guys are winners. But in another, more accurate way, most of them are losers and Gilbert Baker is the winner, since he won.

More from Roby Brock at Talk Business, who offers summaries of the hopefuls’ speeches at his Political Buzz blog.