A Challenge for Republican Senate Candidates

Blogging machine Jason Tolbert has a good post over at The Tolbert Report touching on Republican Senate hopeful Conrad Reynolds’ plans for financing his 2010 campaign. Reynolds, like many of the Republican hopefuls, has been slow off the mark in raising money for the race. As of the last reporting period, Reynolds had some $43,000 on hand (with $30,000 of that total being Reynolds’ own money).

Let’s go to Tolbert’s video:

Note the artful use of the passive voice when Reynolds talks about campaign money. It’s going to “flow into this state,” and “they’ll match anything that she’s got.” It absolves him of responsibility for raising money for his own campaign, right? After all, that money is simply going to flow!

This is not to pick on Reynolds, particularly; it’s a common trope among the under-funded and under-performing candidates to argue they don’t need to raise money because “the money will be there.” Well…perhaps. Or perhaps not. Are you sure you wanna stake your campaign on that?

But I don’t want to be overly negative, so let’s make a deal. Here’s the assignment for all these lower-tier candidates in the Republican Senate primary: Let’s set a threshold target of, oh, let’s say $4 million. You go raise $4 million, and you don’t even have to spend it—just park it in the bank.

Then, if your theories about all of this magical money “flowing” into the state turn out to be true, and you didn’t need the $4 million, you can simply return it to the contributors once you’ve won the race, and I’ll admit that I was terribly, terribly wrong. You can even park the money in a CD and maybe hold on to the interest you generate in the meantime.

You’ll have proven your point that money isn’t that important, but without the risk of entering the campaign season lacking the money you’ll need to run a competitive campaign. It would have the added benefit of proving that you CAN raise the money, and that your failures to do so thus far have not been a function of inability or unwillingness to do the basic things that a campaign requires.

Sound like a good deal? I thought so.

That Hissing Sound You’re Hearing…

…is the air escaping from the rapidly deflating balloon of Mike Huckabee’s future political aspirations.

Vic Snyder Has Terrible Poll Numbers, Also

Vic Snyder sees polling woesSay, you know who’s breathing a sigh of relief this morning? Sen. Blanche Lincoln — because for once people will be talking about terrible poll numbers that aren’t hers.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm out of North Carolina, reports that a recent survey of Arkansas’ second Congressional district shows only 42 percent of voters approving of Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder’s performance, with 46 percent disapproving.

Snyder polls strongly with Dems, but he’s hurting amongst Republican and independent voters. The pollsters characterize the 2010 race for this seat as a “toss-up” at this time.

A lot of Snyder’s issues can probably be traced to overall feelings about his party. 54% of voters in the district disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, 52% disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance, and 50% express the feeling that Congressional Democrats are too liberal. Additionally 55% of voters say they’re opposed to the health care bill the House passed last week with Snyder’s support, including 91% of Republicans and 67% of independents. Snyder seems to be bearing the brunt of a lot of animosity toward national Democrats in his district.

PPP has more over here (with link to PDF file with full results). The survey also shows Snyder slightly leading each of his potential GOP opponents, Tim Griffin, David Meeks and Scott Wallace. All are within the margin of error.

Tribute to Our Veterans

A moving tribute to our veterans…

Greenberg Makes Formal Senate Announcement

Nerd vs. Nerd. Arkansas GOP Rep. Dan Greenberg (an Arkansas Project contributor) will make his candidacy for the state Senate seat in District 22 official this evening (Thursday) with a formal announcement on the Saline County Courthouse lawn in Benton at 6 p.m. Come one, come all!

Greenberg will face former Rep. Jeremy Hutchinson in a primary race that will be closely and intensely watched by Dan and Jeremy, while the rest of us point and laugh derisively at their general haplessness.

(FULL DISCLOSURE: I sent Greenberg a $50 campaign donation, but only because I wanted the state tax credit for a political contribution.)

Candidates! Look At Your Calendars!

Bloody November

If you’re one of the many, many Republican primary candidates in the U.S. Senate race shaping up here in Arkansas, most of whose campaigns are under-performing financially, here’s a friendly reminder that campaign fundraising often gets pretty tough around the holidays.

Like, see that week for Thanksgiving on your calendar? Yeah, you can probably pretty much mark that one off. You won’t be raising any significant scratch in that week.

OK, now flip ahead to December and cross off the last two weeks of that month, more or less.

That leaves you with about four or maybe five weeks to raise money for your campaign. Which would be a smart thing to do, given the numbers that many of the contenders posted at the end of the 2009 third quarter. (Take a closer look at that chart—based on the numbers some of these guys are reporting, most of those guys couldn’t even afford the $10,000 fee to file for office.)

Just sayin’. A campaign war chest is a handy thing to have, even if it means you have to skip out on participating in some dumbass “straw poll,” which is apparently poised to be the hot pointless political gimmick of campaign season 2010.

Sen. Tracy Steele to Run for House District 39 Seat

State Sen. Tracy Steele, a term-limited Democrat, sends word that he’ll run for the Arkansas House of Representatives in District 39. The seat is currently held by first-term Democratic Rep. Richard Carroll. (Carroll was elected as a Green Party representative in 2008 but changed his party affiliation in April of this year.) So chalk up another primary contest.

Steele’s full release is at the jump.

While we’re on the subject, although posting has been sporadic here at The Arkansas Project lately (What’s that, you’re feeling neglected? OK, OK, I promise, this weekend we’ll go out for a nice steak dinner, just you and me. Now let’s see that million-dollar smile, huh? That’s my girl!), I’ve been regularly updating our candidate lists for 2010, so check ‘em out if you haven’t looked in a while. (And many thanks to all of you who have written in to share names we didn’t have and to point out my boneheaded errors that needed correcting.)

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Huzzah, For It Is Election Night, At Long Last, Somewhere

At long last, the off-year elections for the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia and for the open Congressional seat in New York House District 23 will be decided, meaning that soon we can all go back to not caring about these places anymore.

I’m going to go ahead and get a head start by forgetting where New York House District 23 is located. Where is that, out on Long Island somewhere? Sounds about right.

More Ugly Polling Numbers for Lincoln

Blanche LincolnRoby Brock at Talk Business fires up his magical mystical polling machine yet again for a slew of questions on political and public affairs matters in Arkansas.

Among the top-line results: A notable degradation in Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s numbers from the last Talk Business survey in July. Lincoln’s latest numbers, per Roby, show 46 percent of Arkansans expressing an unfavorable opinion of the senior senator and 42 percent favorable.

Looks as if President Barack Obama, with 59 percent of Arkansans disapproving, is a millstone around Lincoln’s neck. Gov. Mike Beebe shows a slight decline but continues to post strong favorability numbers.

And lord a’mighty, there’s way more data in these polls than any one person could possibly digest in a single blog post, so I’ll send you to Roby’s blog for more info.

Meanwhile, the slip in Lincoln’s poll numbers and the carnival of candidates on the Republican side have led political watchers at Congressional Quarterly to shift their assessment of the 2010 Senate race in Arkansas from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”